The Stage is Set: Record Heat in Atlantic Signals Extreme 2024 Hurricane Season

This year's Atlantic hurricane season is expected to produce between 17 and 25 named tropical storms, including up to seven major hurricanes, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the most storms the agency has ever predicted in a seasonal forecast.

We are gearing up for a special season. Rick SpinradThe head of NOAA said at a press conference:

annual forecast A tropical storm with sustained winds greater than 39 mph (63 kph). This year, NOAA predicts that of the named storms, 8 to 13 will become hurricanes with winds of 74 mph (119 kph) or greater, and 4 to 7 will become major hurricanes with winds of 111 mph (179 kph) or greater.

The combined strength of these storms over the season, known as cumulative cyclonic energy, is the second highest ever forecast by the Met Office.

The high number of forecast storms is due to warmer sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic and a cooling La Niña weather pattern in the Pacific. Above-average temperatures in the Atlantic can make storms stronger and intensify more quickly, and La Niña reduces the wind shear patterns that weaken hurricanes. A stronger-than-normal African monsoon season, which can seed storms, also contributes to the high number of forecasts.

“Everything has to come together to get a prediction like this.” Ken GrahamDirector of the National Weather Service.

The agency's forecast is broadly in line with previous predictions from other organisations, including the UK Met Office. Projected The number of named storms rose to 28, well above the average of 14 over the past 30 years. forecast from Michael Mann He and his colleagues at the University of Pennsylvania predicted a more extreme 27 to 39 named storms. The 2020 hurricane season, the most active on record, produced 30 named storms.

“The factors that are predicted to result in the most active season on record are a 'two-pronged whammy,' both favored by human-induced climate change,” Mann said. Warming from greenhouse gas emissions has a large impact on warming of the Atlantic Ocean, and climate models suggest that human-induced warming could increase the propensity for La Niña events, he said.

That's in contrast to the relatively mild 2023 season, which saw just 20 named storms. Last year, warm waters in the Atlantic were also milder, due to wind shear from the El Niño phenomenon in the Pacific. And most of those hurricanes blew out over the ocean rather than making landfall on the coast. Still, last year's storms caused about $4 billion in damages to the U.S., Spinrad said.

The direction of the 2024 storm is the “million-dollar question” Phil Klotzbach The Colorado State University researcher said the storm's path is difficult to predict because it depends on short-term weather, but he said storms are likely to form in the Caribbean, batter islands and move quickly along the U.S. coast.

Although the forecast is alarming, authorities are encouraging people to Take steps to minimize the risk Expected damage from the storm. “The numbers are on the high side, but it's important to be prepared,” Graham said.