Study finds that the Earth is warming at an unprecedented rate

Earth’s Speed It’s getting warmer 2023 is the highest on record, beating last year’s astonishing 92%. Record-breaking heatwave Leading scientists have calculated that the cause is human.

A group of 57 scientists from around the world used UN-approved methods to investigate what’s behind it. Last year’s heatwaveThey said that even if the rate of warming has increased, they found no evidence of a significant acceleration of human-induced climate change beyond increased burning of fossil fuels.

Last year’s record temperatures were so extraordinary that scientists have been debating what’s behind the spike, whether climate change is accelerating or if other factors are at play.

“When we see the world accelerating or going through a major tipping point, things aren’t happening,” said Piers Forster, a climate scientist at the University of Leeds and lead author of the study. “Temperatures are rising and things are getting worse exactly as we predicted.”

This can mostly be explained by the buildup of carbon dioxide from increased fossil fuel use, he and his co-authors said.

Last year’s warming rate was 0.26C (0.47F) per decade, up from 0.25C (0.45F) the year before. Forster said that’s not a huge difference, but this year’s rate is the highest on record.

Still, outside scientists said the report paints a more alarming picture than ever before.

“While whether or not to tackle climate is a politically contentious issue, this report should remind people that it is actually a fundamentally life-saving choice,” said Andrea Dutton, a climate scientist at the University of Wisconsin who was not part of the international research team. “To me, that’s something worth fighting for.”

The authors, who formed to provide an annual scientific update between major UN scientific assessments every seven to eight years, concluded that last year’s temperature was 1.43 degrees Celsius higher than the 1850-1900 average, of which 1.31 degrees was due to human activities. The remaining 8 percent of warming was Mainly due to El NiñoThese include natural, temporary warming in the central Pacific Ocean that changes weather around the world, as well as unusual warming along the Atlantic Ocean and other weather randomness.

Looking at longer time frames — decade-by-decade, which scientists prefer over annual periods — the world has warmed about 1.19 degrees Celsius (2.14 degrees Fahrenheit) since pre-industrial times, the report said. Earth System Science Data Journal found.

The report also says that if the world continues to burn coal, oil and natural gas, the planet is likely to reach a point within four and a half years where it will become unavoidable to cross internationally accepted warming thresholds. 1.5℃ (2.7℃) ).

This is consistent with previous studies that project that if emissions trajectory remains unchanged, the planet will reach at least 1.5 degrees Celsius of warming by early 2029. While reaching 1.5 degrees may be years away, it seems inevitable once all the carbon is used, Forster said.

Scientists say that going over 1.5 degrees won’t mean the end of the world or humanity, but it will be pretty dire. Past UN Studies Large-scale changes to Earth’s ecosystems are expected to become more likely with a warming of between 1.5 and 2 degrees Celsius, ultimately resulting in the loss of the planet’s coral reefs, Arctic sea ice, plant and animal species, as well as more extreme and life-threatening weather events.

Last year’s temperature rise wasn’t just a minor spike — September was particularly unusual, said study co-author Sonia Seneviratne, head of the land climate dynamics department at ETH Zurich in Switzerland.

Seneviratne said this year was at the higher end of the range but within expectations.

“If there was an acceleration, it would be even worse, perhaps a worst-case scenario, where the world would reach a tipping point,” Seneviratne said. “But what’s happening now is already very bad, and we’re already seeing big impacts. We’re in the middle of a crisis.”

Jonathan Overpeck, dean of the University of Michigan’s School of Environmental Studies, and Zeke Hausfather, a global climate scientist at the University of Berkeley, neither of whom worked on the study, said they still see an acceleration in warming, which Hausfather noted is much faster than the 0.18 degrees Celsius (0.32 degrees Fahrenheit) per decade that occurred from 1970 to 2010.

The scientists Big increase in SeptemberHausfather called that “staggering.” Wednesday’s report didn’t find enough warming from other potential causes. It said that while reduced sulfur pollution from ships had some cooling effect on the atmosphere, that was offset last year by carbon particles released into the atmosphere by Canadian wildfires.

The report also noted that undersea volcanoes, which released huge amounts of heat-trapping water vapor into the atmosphere, also spewed cooling particles, with the two forces roughly cancelling each other out.

“The future is in our hands,” said Katherine Hayhoe, a climate scientist at Texas Tech University and chief scientist at the Nature Conservancy. “It’s up to us, humans, not physicists, to decide how fast and how much the Earth will warm.”