Tourists are trying to cool down in Rome, which is expected to increase significantly by heat stroke by 2099
Massimo Valickia/Nurphoto (via Getty Image)
Researchers predict that if there are no further measures to restrict global warming and adapt to global warming, 2.3 million people will die in major European cities by 2099. I am. However, in cold northern northern countries, such as the United Kingdom, the number of deaths associated with the temperature of the cold will decrease due to the increase in the number of deaths due to the cold.
“It's presumed that there are some pure reductions, but it's very small compared to the significant increase in the Mediterranean region,” says. Pierre Maslot At London Hygiene Tropical Medicine School.
Masero's team first investigated epidemiological research on how the number of deaths increased during the intense heat or extreme cold period. Next, his team uses these statistical links to estimate how excessive deaths change in the next century in a variety of global warming scenarios.
The study is for 850 cities where 40 % of European population lives, but not in rural areas. This is because if many people live in a narrow area and are exposed to almost the same conditions, the statistical connection will be stronger.
If the city does not adapt, the ultimate impact of climate change will increase in exponential functions as global warming progresses. In the same scenario as the current scenario, the temperature -related number of excess deaths will increase by 50 % to 136 per year by 2099 by 2099 by 2099.
According to Masero, this figure will decrease if we take measures such as spreading air conditioners and planting trees in the city center, but to significantly reduce the vulnerabilities of the people in the heat. It is necessary. “This is far beyond what we have already observed in many countries around the world.”
The estimated value of the research team is based on the daily average temperature in the global warming scenario, and there is no possibility that extreme heat waves may be generated. “I know that this is usually enough to be able to associate death and temperature,” Maserotto says.
He says this is the most comprehensive study of this kind of study so far. It contains more countries, and for the first time, it was suggested that the number of deaths related to temperature increased as the continent warmed in France and Germany.
He says that rising temperature will have a wide range of effects from people's health to productivity. “The destiny to die is only part of the story.”
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Source: www.newscientist.com
