In the event of a global disaster affecting international trade and fuel supplies, our survival may hinge on a resilient yet practical diet consisting of peas, potatoes, sugar beets, and spinach.
This perspective emerges from a recent study featured in the journal PLOS 1.
The research, conducted by Dr. Matt Boyd of Adapt Research Ltd and Professor Nick Wilson from The University of Otago, New Zealand, examined how cities could sustain themselves amidst scenarios like nuclear conflict, severe pandemics, or significant solar flares that might disrupt global food systems.
These situations could hinder access to vital resources, such as fuel and fertilizers, jeopardizing industrial agriculture and long-distance transportation.
Prior studies have highlighted urban agriculture, including rooftop gardens and community plots, as potential methods to bolster local resilience. However, Boyd and Wilson sought to determine the actual efficacy of these efforts.
They utilized satellite imagery to assess the food production capacity of Palmerston North, a temperate city in New Zealand.
The findings revealed that urban agriculture could sustain only about one-fifth of the city’s population, even under optimal conditions where all suitable urban spaces became gardens.
To fully nourish the city, over 1,140 hectares of farmland would need to be repurposed for food production, along with an extra 110 hectares to cultivate biofuel crops for agricultural machinery in the absence of liquid fuels.
Perhaps the most noteworthy aspect of the study is the proposed diet.
“Every individual requires a specific amount of protein and energy to stave off hunger,” Boyd stated to BBC Science Focus.
“Among the crops we analyzed, peas necessitate minimal land to fulfill one person’s protein and energy requirements when cultivated with urban farming techniques.”
However, Boyd noted that while peas thrive in situations with climates similar to today’s, they may not survive the colder conditions anticipated after a nuclear winter.
This phenomenon occurs when soot from a nuclear explosion blocks sunlight, cooling the planet and resulting in shorter growing seasons and lower average temperatures. In such scenarios, sugar beets and spinach would be more viable options, as both crops are hardy and high in energy content.
Traditional farming methods remain accessible just outside urban areas, assuming limited reliance on nearby land and fuel. Under typical climate conditions, potatoes can efficiently feed people using minimal land.
“However, they are susceptible to frost,” Boyd remarked, which is problematic in nuclear winter conditions.
“When we combine 3% carrots with 97% wheat, we achieve optimal protein and energy levels for wheat. Both wheat and carrots can endure frost and require less liquid fuel than potatoes.”
Fortunately, this doesn’t imply a rigid diet consisting solely of these foods. The study offers a strategy for maximizing the number of people fed with minimal land usage, representing a worst-case scenario dietary plan.
“In practice, it’s likely that a diverse crop mixture would be cultivated,” Boyd explained. “However, when determining what to grow near a city, priority should be given to crops that provide high protein and energy levels.”
The researchers believe their methodology will assist cities globally in evaluating food security and developing land use strategies that enhance resilience. However, cities bounded by large bodies of water or those that are densely populated may need to explore alternative approaches.
“The likelihood of global catastrophes is increasing due to emerging bio threats, geopolitical tensions, and technological advancements,” Boyd cautioned. “Society must be prepared for both the destruction of infrastructure and the aftermath of such events.”
“Our study’s insights suggest that with local government support and proactive measures, cities can adopt localized solutions to enhance resilience.”
About our experts
Matt Boyd founded Adapt Research in 2015, focusing on custom research collaborations with experts. His work centers on analyzing and mitigating significant global risks, along with technology and public health issues. Boyd’s findings are published in peer-reviewed journals, including New Zealand Medical Journal and Public Health Journals in Australia and New Zealand.
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Source: www.sciencefocus.com
