Can a $125 Billion Investment Fund Reverse Global Deforestation?

During the COP30 Climate Summit in November, a coalition of countries led by Brazil introduces a groundbreaking initiative aimed at compensating tropical nations for sustaining their forest ecosystems.

The Tropical Forests Forever Facility (TFFF) secures funding through investments rather than relying solely on donations or the sale of carbon credits.

“We need to explore new fundraising avenues for tropical forests. This innovative fund has the potential to play a vital role in complementing traditional grant-based funding and, more importantly, reducing our dependency on carbon trading,” states Kate Dooley, from the University of Melbourne, Australia.

The fund is positioned as a substitute for the carbon market, offering businesses a means to offset their emissions by financing forest protection. While it was once seen as a promising strategy for generating funds from the private sector, it has faced significant backlash for favoring corporate profits over environmental benefits.

A major benefit of TFFF is its straightforward approach. Rather than estimating how much carbon is stored in forests or assessing their vulnerability, the initiative compensates for the intact forest canopy each year, monitored through satellite technology.

“Our team approached the Brazilian government in 2023,” explains Pedro Moura Costa, an expert in environmental finance.

Unlike government donations that can be inconsistent and withdrawable at any moment, this fund is designed for sustainability.

The project’s planners aim to secure a $25 billion sovereignty loan from the government along with an additional $100 billion from private investors. These funds will be directed towards corporate bonds and green energy initiatives, particularly avoiding industries tied to deforestation.

After ensuring a fixed return for investors, any profits generated will flow directly to tropical nations for forest conservation efforts. This includes expanding conservation agencies. Crucially, 20% of the resources must be allocated to Indigenous communities, with TFFF collaborating closely with the Global Alliance of Territorial Communities, advocating for Indigenous rights.

The funds projected can generate $4 billion annually, which is sufficient to offer $4 every year per hectare of tropical forest preserved. Conversely, for every hectare lost, $100 will be deducted from government payments. Moura states it takes 100 years for primary tropical forests to regenerate, demanding a high level of responsibility.

However, the current proposal defines an undisturbed forest as having only 20% canopy cover, raising concerns of potential overexploitation. Dooley warns that “fires often indicate degradation rather than being its cause,” pointing out flaws in using fire metrics for monitoring.

Several environmental organizations and climate finance analysts have expressed strong disapproval of this concept. They argue that wealthier nations should provide direct financial support to poorer countries rather than investing in uncertain ventures. Frederick Hash from the Green Finance Observatory, which evaluates private investments in green opportunities, states, “Conservation funds are vulnerable to future economic shifts, interest rates, and fund management capabilities. This differs markedly from grants, and may not meet the expectations of a fund aimed at addressing our critical ecological challenges.” He adds that the promised 20% for Indigenous peoples “seems insufficient and fails to acknowledge their valuable contributions.”

Despite insufficient donor funding for conservation and the looming threat of surpassing the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C warming limit, advocates argue there is an urgent need for practical alternatives to grant-based support.

Signatories of the 2002 Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework committed to providing $20 billion annually for biodiversity conservation in low-income nations by 2025, increasing to $30 billion by 2030. However, the average cost stands at $8.2 billion a year.

“To initiate substantial change, we must devise new, innovative strategies where environmental protection becomes self-funding and is no longer dependent on grants or handouts. Without this, we may face failure,” remarks Moura.

“There must be a mechanism to compensate those safeguarding nature and preserving forests.” Simon Zadeck, a climate adaptation consultant and investment platform expert, adds, “Funding sources might include domestic finances and philanthropy, alongside income from natural products like nuts and timber, but these are insufficient alone. Thus, we need to promote creative funding solutions.”

If TFFF can achieve its $125 billion goal, it will represent the most significant single funding source in history for forest conservation. It may even surpass Brazil’s current environmental budget.

However, the success of this initiative hinges on attracting enough capital during what international experts identify as a particularly challenging economic landscape.

“This geoeconomic environment presents significant obstacles for such an ambitious project,” says Zadek. “Public finances are strained, and private investment is currently focused on short- to medium-term returns.”