Emperor Penguins at Risk of Extinction by 2100
Stefan Christmann/naturepl.com
Antarctica is witnessing a dramatic decline in two iconic species—the emperor penguin (Aptenodytes forsteri) and the Antarctic fur seal (Arctocephalus gazella), both of which are now classified as endangered on the IUCN Red List.
Meanwhile, the southern elephant seal (Mirounga leonina) has been downgraded from “Least Concern” to “Vulnerable.”
The IUCN Red List is recognized globally as the most comprehensive evaluation of the conservation status of animal, fungal, and plant species.
Data from the IUCN reveals that satellite imagery indicates a staggering loss of about 10%—over 20,000 adult emperor penguins—between 2009 and 2018. Projections estimate that their population will be cut in half by the 2080s.
“We’ve determined that human-induced climate change represents the most critical threat to emperor penguins,” stated Philip Trathan of the British Antarctic Survey and a member of the IUCN Species Survival Committee. “Early spring sea ice collapse is already impacting colonies throughout Antarctica, further alterations in sea ice will influence breeding, feeding, and molting habitats.”
The population of Antarctic fur seals has plummeted by over 50%, dropping from more than 2 million adult seals in 1999 to approximately 944,000 in 2025, primarily due to climate change.
In addition, southern elephant seal numbers have been severely affected by avian influenza, resulting in over 90% mortality among newborns in certain colonies, according to the IUCN.
Sharon Robinson from the University of Wollongong, Australia, along with colleagues, highlighted in 2022 that emperor penguins are among Antarctica’s most endangered species, potentially facing extinction by 2100.
“Global warming, which warms the oceans and melts sea ice, is eradicating the breeding grounds essential for successful reproduction of emperor penguins,” Robinson noted. “Like many birds and mammals, penguin chicks require safe environments for development, yet human activities are swiftly dismantling these critical habitats.”
Robinson, along with Dana Bergstrom from the University of Wollongong, also stressed the urgent need for attention. The 2025 survey offered alarming updates on the plight of emperor penguins and fellow Antarctic species.
“Of over 60 known emperor penguin colonies around the coastline, about half have exhibited increased reproductive failure or complete loss of breeding success due to early ice loss since 2016, with 16 colonies affected more than once,” Bergstrom explained. Fast ice refers to the sea ice that clings to the coast or seabed.
“This context adds to the already dire situation on the Antarctic Peninsula, where premature sea ice collapse has led to drowning chicks,” she stated.
The fate of the emperor penguin is “inextricably linked to climate policy,” according to the World Wildlife Fund. “To mitigate severe impacts, it’s critical to transition from fossil fuels and restrict global temperature rise to as close to 1.5°C as feasible,” WWF emphasized.
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Source: www.newscientist.com
