Impact of U.S. Ocean Program Budget Cuts on El Niño and AMOC Monitoring

During the winter of 2013-2014, shifts in the jet stream led to the emergence of a significant warm water mass dubbed the “blob,” which extended over 1,500 kilometers across the North Pacific Ocean. This phenomenon was detected by floating instruments anchored to the ocean floor off the coastlines of Alaska, Washington, and Oregon, alerting scientists and the fishing industry to water temperatures exceeding normal levels by up to 4 degrees Celsius.

These instruments are part of the Ocean Observing Initiative (OOI), which comprised five moorings along the West coast of the United States, as well as off the East coast and in Greenland. The National Science Foundation (NSF) announced a substantial $220 million investment in 2023, emphasizing the necessity of the OOI for monitoring “Earth’s vital organs.” However, recent announcements from the NSF indicated plans to dismantle most of these arrays due to funding reductions initiated by the previous administration.

Between 2015 and 2016, sensors attached to the OOI mooring wire identified the warm water mass, with temperatures rising significantly influenced by global-warming events, particularly El Niño. This data revealed that occurrences of the blob happened again in 2019 and may be becoming more frequent due to climate change, which has been associated with toxic algae blooms affecting fisheries, such as the $60 million loss from California’s Dungeness crab fishery.

The removal of OOI moorings jeopardizes not only weather forecasts, including precipitation predictions which affect drought conditions in the western U.S., but also the ability to monitor key elements like the Atlantic Meridional Circulation (AMOC), crucial for maintaining Europe’s temperate climate and assessing El Niño impacts.

“We’re flying blind, which ultimately results in greater costs,” states John Abraham from the University of St. Thomas in Minnesota. Operating the OOI costs approximately $56 million annually, while U.S. commercial fisheries, relying heavily on OOI data, generate billions of dollars annually. Weather-related disasters have historically caused damages reaching $183 billion, further emphasizing the importance of accurate data.

Without access to the OOI data, fishing fleets will struggle to determine which areas will be less affected by El Niño events. This upcoming El Niño is predicted by some models to be among the strongest on record. Oyster, clam, and shellfish farms would find it challenging to prepare for diminished temperatures and nutrients caused by El Niño, while scientists would lose sight of significant impacts on marine ecosystems, including the formation of low-oxygen “dead zones.”

“The timing couldn’t be worse,” lamented Hilary Palewski from Boston University, stressing the critical function of OOI in marine research.

Satellites cannot penetrate the ocean’s surface, making data from submerged floats, gliders, and tethered vessels vital for understanding the Earth’s ocean-covered regions, which account for about 70%. These instruments primarily measure temperature, salinity, and flow, but the OOI moorings also assess pH, oxygen, and CO2 levels—essential for comprehending oceanic biology and chemistry, particularly in remote, monitored regions where water mass movements influence climate.

The loss of these sensor networks will also pose challenges globally, especially concerning AMOC observability. The OOI array located in the Irminger Sea, east of Greenland, is part of the OSNAP initiative—a network of gliders and moorings stretching from Canada to Scotland, monitoring the warm saltwater flow, pivotal for the AMOC. A breakdown in this system could result in Europe experiencing severe winter conditions and disrupt essential monsoon rains vital for agriculture in Africa and Asia.

“OSNAP has revealed that most actual capsize events occur east of Greenland, making the Irminger Sea crucial for understanding variability,” notes Femke de Jong from the Royal Netherlands Marine Institute.

Palewski added that dismantling OOI will leave a significant data gap that could hinder future understanding of the AMOC, even if replacement is pursued later.

Scientists are concerned that the dismantling of OOI may herald a drastic reduction in U.S. ocean research funding, risking initiatives like OSNAP and potentially jeopardizing the Argo project, which comprises around 4,000 drifting instrument floats, over half of which are managed by the U.S.

In a statement to New Scientist, the NSF mentioned that the OOI’s removal is aimed at “prioritizing support for evolving scientific priorities.” However, this is contingent on political agendas, with experts like Gretchen Goldman of the Union of Concerned Scientists condemning it as an “attack on science,” amid proposals to cut thousands of research grants and reduce the NSF budget significantly.

This week, new regulations proposed by the administration seek to eliminate peer reviews for research funding applications and empower political appointees rather than independent experts to determine the fate of federally funded studies. Additionally, bans on international cooperation and studies on gender and diversity are planned.

Edward Deaver, a professor at Oregon State University managing the OOI array, emphasizes that both the dismantling of OOI and the proposed grant rule changes constitute sweeping reforms that threaten to undermine peer review and politicize NSF-funded research.

A recent study indicated that dismantling even a fraction of the Global Ocean Observing System, which includes the OOI and Argo floats, could inflate errors in annual ocean heating rates by 33%. This is akin to predicting an unemployment rate of 3% with an imprecise range of 2% to 4%, according to Abraham, a member of the research team.

“This is a calculated move to silence our monitoring of the ocean,” he asserts regarding the OOI dismantling. “If we don’t measure, how can we identify problems?”