Will We See a Practical, Error-Free Quantum Computer in Just Two Years?

Is a revolutionary, error-free quantum computer on the horizon? Researchers at the renowned quantum computing firm QuEra assert that a breakthrough could be achieved as early as 2025.

Quantum computing technology is advancing rapidly, and the industry’s growth is staggering. One major barrier hindering its application in fields like chemistry, materials science, and drug development is the high error rates of quantum computers, limiting their calculation capacities. QuEra’s Yuval Boger and his team are confident they have strategies to overcome this challenge.

QuEra’s upcoming quantum computer, named Libra, is designed to be fault-tolerant, meaning it has the ability to identify and correct its own errors. Scheduled for cloud deployment in collaboration with Amazon Web Services (AWS), Libra is projected to be operational by 2028. Currently, no fully functional, fault-tolerant quantum computers exist; Boger likens this milestone to “breaking the sound barrier.”

The qubits in Libra are crafted from electrically neutral atoms at subzero temperatures and managed using laser technology. The system is expected to operate with 10,000 to 15,000 qubits, arranged into 256 logical qubit clusters. Remarkably, even if the individual qubits are unreliable, they will only falter once in a million instances.

QuEra anticipates that Libra will facilitate “mega-quops,” or one million operations. In 2025, quantum expert John Preskill at the California Institute of Technology noted that this mega-quop machine could herald a new chapter in quantum computing. However, achieving this vision will require significant advancements: the largest neutral atom qubit array today contains just 6,100 qubits and hasn’t been applied to calculations, while the record for error-correction among logical qubits stands at 48. Major players like IBM predict the introduction of fault-tolerant quantum computers by 2029.

Jonathan King from Atom Computing, which develops its own neutral atom quantum computer, suggests that achieving a fully functional system will necessitate integrating various scientific and technological breakthroughs beyond laboratory prototypes. QuEra operates five experimental machines to refine Libra’s components, including the replacement of defective atoms due to increased temperatures, optimizing laser power management, and system integration.

“The balance is shifting from 90% science to 10% engineering, leaning more towards engineering,” Boger explains. The team is also improving the interaction between traditional computing systems used to monitor and control qubits, collaborating with AWS to incorporate Libra into the substantial cloud infrastructure.

“There’s still much work ahead,” reflects Thomas Wong from Creighton University, who adds, “We might reach this goal by 2028, but it could also take several more years.” Joe Fitzsimmons from Horizon Quantum Computing notes that although Libra’s ambitions are significant, QuEra has a strong history of making progress in error correction for quantum systems. While various techniques exist to develop qubits, the neutral atom method has an edge when it comes to converting between qubits and logical qubits.

Assuming everything unfolds smoothly, one major question remains: What capabilities will the MegaQuop machine offer? According to Boger, it is particularly suited for simulating intricate systems in physics and materials science that remain beyond the reach of conventional or existing quantum computers. He hopes researchers will leverage it to create new quantum computing algorithms for future fault-tolerant systems. “I wouldn’t be surprised if most of the truly impactful algorithms have yet to be discovered,” he asserts.

Wong envisions Libra as a potential “discovery machine” that could spur a multitude of innovative applications. “I believe QuEra aims to shape the future of research so the community can determine how to best utilize 256 logical qubits,” he concludes.