The UK government has promoted a potential £400bn economic boost from artificial intelligence for two years, but its AI minister has acknowledged that the figure was substantially higher than the government’s own latest estimates. The £400bn projection came from a 2023 report commissioned by Google, while the government’s more recent assessment puts the potential contribution of AI adoption and data investment at between £55bn and £140bn by 2030, with a central estimate of £120bn.
Government estimate is less than a third of £400bn figure
AI Minister Kanishka Narayan gave the figures in response to a parliamentary question. He described the newer assessment as a “highly uncertain” estimate.
Narayan said the £400bn figure was “derived from a publicly available 2023 report commissioned by Google and produced by British consultancy Public First, now called PF Global”.
The government had used the £400bn projection for almost two years under two governments. Ministers had been giving lower estimates since at least November 2025, almost a year before this week’s admissions, but Skills England, the agency responsible for apprenticeships, was still publishing the older figure four months later.
Different assumptions about AI adoption
Jonathan Dupont, head of economics at PF Global, told WIRED that the difference was partly explained by the government’s slower assumptions about AI adoption.
“AI is a very fast-advancing technology, and as we learn more we will inevitably need to update the assumptions behind the models,” Dupont said. “Compared to older models, the numbers used by the government assume a much slower rate of adoption than was thought possible with the model created in 2023.”
Narayan’s parliamentary response is the first documentary evidence WIRED has found that the government compared the two figures directly or stated that the £400bn report had been commissioned by Google. The response does not withdraw the £400bn figure, nor does it establish that the projection was wrong.
Committee chair warns against AI hype
Dame Chi Onwula, the Labour MP who chairs the Commons Science, Innovation and Technology Committee, told WIRED: “The Government is right to tout the potential of AI and other technologies to improve public services. But these reports highlight one of the central barriers to delivering the digital transformation of public services that my committee has identified: hype.”
Source: www.wired.com
