China’s CO2 Emissions Are Declining: Is This the Turning Point?

As the world’s leading emitter of carbon dioxide, China has recorded a slight decrease in emissions over the past year, despite an increase in electricity demand. This development signals a promising shift towards cleaner energy sources replacing fossil fuels, although there remains the potential for emissions to rise again.

This information comes from an analysis of China’s economic and energy statistics conducted by Lauri Myllivirta of the Finnish research organization, Research Centre on Energy and Clean Air. A report published in Carbon Brief notes that China’s CO2 emissions dropped by 1% in the past 12 months, with a 1.6% decline reported in the first quarter of 2025 compared to the previous year.

This is not the first instance of reduced CO2 emissions in China; a similar drop occurred in 2022 due to the economic slowdown during the COVID-19 lockdown. However, this marks the first time emissions have decreased alongside increased electricity usage. “This significantly raises the likelihood that the current emissions reduction can be sustained,” said Myllivirta.

The primary driver for this trend is China’s significant expansion of solar, wind, and nuclear energy, which are gradually reducing the reliance on fossil fuel combustion for electricity production. Additionally, the shift away from carbon-heavy industries like cement and steel is contributing to this downward trend, along with a rise in electric vehicle use, which decreases oil demand.

If current trends continue, China’s carbon emissions may keep declining. This sustained drop suggests the country may have reached its peak emissions several years ahead of its 2030 target. According to Myllivirta, this represents significant progress in both tangible and psychological terms in the fight against climate change.

“If Chinese leaders recognize the importance of resolving emissions issues, it could position China as a stronger and more constructive participant in international climate discussions, inspiring other nations to follow suit,” he stated.

Nonetheless, various factors could lead to a resurgence in emissions levels. For example, extreme summer temperatures might drive up electricity consumption for air conditioning. Droughts, like those in 2022 and 2023, could impair hydroelectric output, necessitating increased reliance on coal and gas plants, as noted by David Fishman of the Lantau Group, a consulting firm in Hong Kong.

There is also uncertainty regarding the long-term impact of tariffs imposed during the Trump administration, which may introduce volatility to China’s emissions projections, as Myllivirta highlighted.

In the long run, China will need to harness hundreds of gigawatts annually to satisfy energy demand. Achieving these objectives will depend on the targets set by the Chinese government in its upcoming five-year plan, due in 2026, and on commitments made under the Paris Agreement leading up to this year’s COP30 Summit.

“The trajectory of global climate stability does not hinge solely on China’s actions this summer, but understanding what occurs with China’s emissions in the upcoming years and decades will be crucial,” Myllivirta concluded.