Climate Change: A Major Concern Falling Off the Agenda in Canadian Elections

Melting Arctic ice. Record-breaking wildfires across multiple states. Countries experiencing average warming are warming at a twice the rate of other regions worldwide.

Yet, when Canadians head to the polls on Monday, climate change isn’t even among the top ten issues for voters. Recent surveys indicate this shift.

“That’s not the focus of this election,” remarked Jessica Green, a political scientist at the University of Toronto specializing in climate-related topics.

The election revolves around a collective desire to choose a leader capable of standing up to Donald J. Trump, who poses a threat to Canada amidst a trade war, if not a full annexation as the “51st state.”

Leading the polls is liberal Mark Carney, who boasts decades of experience in climate policy. He served for five years as a UN envoy on climate action and finance, orchestrating a coalition of banks committed to halting carbon dioxide emissions through financing practices by 2050.

Despite his impressive background, Carney hasn’t prioritized climate change in his campaign. Following Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s resignation, one of Carney’s initial actions was to eliminate fuel taxes based on emission levels, including gasoline taxes.

While many Canadians have redirected the resulting funds into rebate checks, Mr. Carney appears to misunderstand the policy, labeling it as “too divided.”

This decision, coupled with similarities between his Conservative opponents, Pierre Poilievre and Trump, has contributed to Carney’s rise in the polls.

“Carney made a clever move by abolishing the consumer carbon tax, which was widely unpopular and essentially formed the basis of Poilievre’s campaign against him,” said Dr. Green. “It took the wind out of the Conservative Party’s sails.”

Mr. Carney is acutely aware of political dynamics. In a recent television discussion, he mentioned to Poilievre, “I spent years advocating for Justin Trudeau and the carbon tax.”

Poilievre is a staunch supporter of Canada’s vast oil and gas industry, making Canada the fourth-largest oil producer and the fifth-largest gas producer globally. Yet, unlike Trump, he recognizes the necessity of reducing greenhouse gas emissions driving climate change.

“Canadian oil and clean natural gas must replace coal globally, allowing countries like India and others in Asia to utilize gas instead of dirty coal,” he stated at a recent press conference during his campaign.

However, Carney’s proposals don’t significantly differ. He envisions Canada as a “superpower of both traditional and clean energy.” His platform suggests reforms like bolstering the carbon market and expediting approvals for clean energy initiatives.

Perhaps the most significant distinction between the candidates lies in their views on Canada’s oil and gas emission caps and the tax on industrial emissions, both defended by Trudeau.

Poilievre aims to eliminate these in accordance with industry demands, whereas Carney intends to maintain them. The Canadian Climate Research Institute states that the Industrial Carbon Tax reduces emissions by at least three times more than the consumer tax, making it the most effective policy deployed to decrease emissions leading up to 2030.

Canada ranks among the world’s highest per capita greenhouse gas emitters and is not on track to meet its commitments under the 2015 Paris Agreement. By 2030, the aim is to achieve a minimum of 40-45% reductions from 2005 levels, but the latest national emissions Inventory Report indicates just an 8.5% decrease through 2023.