Halfton Soviet Spacecraft Set for Earth Collision: No Need to Panic

Discarded Soviet-era spacecrafts do not pose a significant risk to Earth, according to experts.

The Kosmos-482, initially designed for a mission to land on Venus, has been stuck in Earth’s orbit for 53 years due to rocket issues. It is anticipated to re-enter the Earth’s atmosphere in the coming days, with the latest forecasts predicting an uncontrolled descent on Saturday.

While the sight of large metal fragments falling back to Earth might seem alarming, old satellites and rocket debris actually re-enter the atmosphere almost daily. According to the European Space Agency (ESA), such events are quite common.

Typically, spacecraft burn up harmlessly upon re-entry. Even if some components survive the intense heat, it is rare for them to land on populated areas, mainly due to the fact that oceans cover about 71% of the Earth’s surface.

“The likelihood of a satellite re-entering and causing injury is exceedingly low,” noted an ESA official in Blog entries regarding Kosmos-482. “Statistically, an individual has less than a one in 100 billion chance of being harmed by space debris. In contrast, a person is approximately 65,000 times more likely to be struck by lightning.”

ESA’s Space Debris Office predicts that Kosmos-482 will start its descent around 4:26 AM on Saturday, with a possible variance of ±4.35 hours.

Meanwhile, U.S. space forces anticipate an earlier re-entry time of about 1:52 AM on Saturday.

The specific re-entry trajectory remains uncertain due to atmospheric dynamics, space weather, and orbital decay, complicating the task of accurately predicting when and where an uncontrolled spacecraft will land.

As the spacecraft nears re-entry, predictions may become more reliable, but pinpointing the exact landing site remains challenging.

NASA has indicated that the potential landing area could be “52 N-52 seconds latitude,” a vast expanse that includes much of Africa, Australia, North America, South America, and parts of Europe and Asia.

Officials from the Space Force have stated that current projections suggest Kosmos-482 will re-enter the Pacific Ocean, west of Guam, landing south of Australia, possibly over or near the southern ocean.

Launched by the Soviet Union in 1972, Kosmos-482 was part of a mission aimed at landing on Venus but ended up in orbit around Earth following a rocket failure.

While most of the debris from this ill-fated mission returned to Earth decades ago, the spherical landing capsule is anticipated to descend this weekend.

This capsule, measuring around 3 feet in diameter, was engineered to withstand the extreme conditions of Venus, raising questions about its capacity to survive re-entry into Earth’s atmosphere, as highlighted by Marco Langbroek, a scientist from the Delft Institute of Technology in the Netherlands, who has been monitoring Kosmos-482 and posting updates online.

“Even if it manages to re-enter, there’s a chance that it might collide intact,” Langbroek noted in a blog update on Thursday. “However, the impact could be severe, and I highly doubt the parachute deployment system will function after 53 years of battery drainage.”

Nonetheless, this does not imply that coastal populations are at imminent risk.

“While the risks are not exceedingly high, they aren’t nonexistent. With masses under 500 kg and impacts resembling those of meteorites, the probabilities are similar,” he wrote.