New Study Challenges RFK Jr.’s Assertion of Rising Severe Autism Cases

This month, Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. shared the government’s latest findings on autism, presenting a stark and controversial viewpoint.

The notion that severe autism symptoms are on the rise lacks scientific backing. In fact, a recent study presented at the International Association for Research on Autism in Seattle indicates that the percentage of autism cases characterized by moderate to severe symptoms remained relatively stable from 2000 to 2016.

In recent weeks, Kennedy has consistently described autism as an “explosion,” attributing it to an increase in serious cases of intellectual disability.

“This trend is unprecedented. It raises alarms about community dynamics,” he told Fox News earlier this month. “This is effectively invalidating these children for their entire lives.”

Kennedy’s claims have drawn criticism from parents, advocates, and health professionals who argue that he represents a limited data set to generalize the autism spectrum.

According to a recent report by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, one in 31 children receives an autism diagnosis by age eight, though it did not distinguish between mild and severe cases.

During the briefing on April 16, Kennedy estimated that a quarter of diagnosed children were non-verbal or required assistance with toileting. A previous CDC study indicated that nearly 27% of individuals with autism are non-verbal or have an IQ below 50. Many researchers, however, suggest that the actual rates may be lower.

Autism is a spectrum disorder, meaning it encompasses a range of symptoms, from mild to more pronounced, influencing how individuals socialize, communicate, learn, and behave.

A new study released this week highlighted that only mild cases increased between 2000 and 2016.

This study analyzed data from the CDC’s Autism and Developmental Disorder Surveillance Network, tracking autism cases across the United States. The researchers assessed adaptive test scores (evaluating children’s social, communication, and daily living skills) in contrast to IQ scores that indicate intellectual disability to determine case severity.

Co-author Maureen Durkin, a professor of population health sciences at Wisconsin-Madison, stated:

David Mandel, a professor of psychiatry at the University of Pennsylvania, noted that he wasn’t involved in the analysis but remarked that adaptive scores were intended to capture severe cases like those described by Kennedy. Compared to IQ scores, adaptive scores better reflect how children with autism function in real life, including their ability to interact with others, manage self-care, and use the toilet independently.

The analysis indicated that in 2016, 1.2 out of every 1,000 children were diagnosed with moderate to severe autism, while mild cases surged by 139% in the same period, from 1.5 out of 1,000 in 2000.

“The rise is primarily among children without severe disabilities, and it would be beneficial for the current HHS secretary to be aware of that,” said Marianne Burton, a clinical professor of psychological science at the University of Connecticut.

The Department of Health and Human Services did not respond to requests for comment.

One potential reason for the increase in mild cases is improved identification by healthcare professionals. Developmental screening became increasingly common during the study period, and in 2006, the American Academy of Pediatrics began recommending universal autism screenings.

Additionally, the diagnostic criteria for autism were revised in 2013 to include mild cases, such as those previously classified as Asperger’s syndrome.

“We’re witnessing a significant expansion of diagnostic criteria that now encompasses individuals who wouldn’t have qualified for an autism diagnosis 50 years ago,” Mandel explained.

Dr. Alex Collebzon, clinical director of the Seaver Autism Center at Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, mentioned the analysis relied on health and educational records, potentially including children with mild symptoms who may not have undergone direct diagnostic assessments.

“Assessing this cohort, I believe they are likely quite confident in their diagnosis, but we are not observing an increase in prevalence,” he stated.

Kennedy rejects the notion that the rise is due to improved diagnostic practices, suggesting that only a “small fraction” of the increase in cases can be attributed to this.

“The media has perpetuated myths in this industry, promoting the idea that autism is more prevalent simply because we are identifying more cases,” he told Fox News host Sean Hannity this month.

Instead, Kennedy unfoundedly claims that environmental toxins are the primary drivers behind increasing cases and has tasked CDC scientists with identifying the source by September.

Kolevzon acknowledged that environmental factors could exacerbate underlying genetic risks for autism, but existing research has yet to pinpoint any specific causative agents.

“We are unlikely to uncover widespread environmental factors that would fully explain the rising prevalence,” he concluded.