NOAA Forecasts Above-Average Atlantic Hurricane Activity

The National Marine and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) anticipates an active Atlantic hurricane season, expecting more storm activity than usual.

“We’re really monitoring a typical season,” stated Ken Graham, a meteorologist and director of the National Weather Service. “We’re expecting a range of storms with names, from 13 to 19.”

A storm receives its name when wind speeds reach 39 mph or more. The forecast indicates 6 to 10 storms may develop into hurricanes, with wind speeds exceeding 74 mph. NOAA also predicts the occurrence of major hurricanes in category 3 or higher.

While the forecast does not specify whether a hurricane will make landfall, where it will do so, or how many will impact the U.S. coast, it is crucial to prepare now, according to meteorologists.

“This is a good time to gather your supplies and prepare your kit,” Graham advised. “We need to be prepared; currently, there are no long lines for supplies, gas, plywood, or water.”

Graham noted that the above-average forecasts are influenced partly by warmer ocean temperatures, a trend linked to climate change.

“The warm ocean temperatures align with our expectation of a more active season,” he explained during a news conference.

Forecasters have also predicted increased activity from the West African monsoon, suggesting that storms may develop off the African coast and travel across the Atlantic towards the U.S.

This hurricane forecast arrives as many National Weather Service offices face staffing shortages, following staff cuts and voluntary retirement programs initiated during the Trump administration.

In the early months of 2025, nearly 600 personnel have left the National Weather Service, creating gaps in staffing. However, the agency’s leadership assured that the National Hurricane Center, a division of the National Weather Service, is adequately resourced.

“We are fully staffed at the Hurricane Center and prepared to respond; this is our top priority for this administration,” stated NOAA acting manager Laura Grimm.

The nation’s 122 local forecast offices have been significantly affected and face numerous vacancies. Many will be responsible for predicting regional impacts such as flooding and rainfall following hurricanes.

“Our office will ensure that the necessary resources are in place to issue warnings whenever there’s a hurricane threat,” Graham added, “and we are working on solutions to maintain long-term staffing.”

Hurricane season spans from June 1st to November 30th, generally peaking in late summer and early fall.

NOAA’s predictions are largely consistent with forecasts from various external research groups, including those from universities, government bodies, and private organizations.

On average, external research groups have forecasted eight Atlantic hurricanes for 2025. The website, managed by Colorado State University and the Barcelona Supercomputing Center, monitors and compiles annual forecasts.

Last year, NOAA projected a record hurricane season, which featured 18 named storms and 11 hurricanes. Five hurricanes made landfall in the U.S., including Hurricane Helen, which impacted Florida’s Gulf Coast and caused severe inland flooding in North Carolina, resulting in over 150 fatalities.

Additionally, Hurricane Milton made landfall as a Category 3 storm in Siesta Key, Florida, spawning 46 tornadoes.

Both hurricanes experienced rapid intensification, a phenomenon where a storm strengthens significantly right before hitting land.

This intensification is increasingly likely due to global warming. High sea surface temperatures can enhance rapid strengthening, similar to trends observed recently. A 2023 study found that tropical cyclones in the Atlantic are about 29% more likely to rapidly intensify from 2001 to 2020 compared to 1971 to 1990.