Soviet-era Spacecraft Poised to Re-enter Earth After Half a Century of Failed Venus Mission

A Soviet-era spaceship aims to land on Venus, with plans for it to return to Earth in the near future.

Currently, it is uncertain where the mass of half-ton metal will descend and how much will survive the journey. Experts are monitoring space debris.

Dutch scientist Marco Langbroek estimates that the spacecraft may re-enter Earth’s atmosphere around May 10th.

“There are risks involved, but there’s no need for excessive concern,” Langbroek stated in an email.

The object is relatively small, and even if it remains intact, the likelihood of it causing damage is similar to that of encountering a random meteorite fall, which occurs annually. “The chance of being struck by lightning in your lifetime is far greater,” he added.

He also mentioned that the spacecraft could potentially impact someone or something; however, this scenario cannot be entirely dismissed.

The Soviet Union sent the spacecraft, known as Cosmos 482, into orbit in 1972 as part of its Venus mission series. It never successfully launched from Earth orbit due to a rocket malfunction.

Most of its counterparts fell back within a decade, yet Langbroek and others believe the landing capsule, a spherical object about three feet (1 meter) in diameter, has been in a highly elliptical orbit for the past 53 years, gradually descending.

There is a substantial possibility that the over 1,000-pound (approximately 500 kilograms) spacecraft could endure re-entry. It was designed to withstand the harsh conditions of Venus’ atmosphere, which is thick with carbon dioxide, according to Langbroek from Delft University of Technology in the Netherlands.

Experts are skeptical about the longevity of its parachute system. Additionally, heat shields might have deteriorated over extended periods in orbit.

Jonathan McDowell of the Harvard Smithsonian Astrophysical Observatory mentioned in an email that while the spacecraft would benefit from an intact heat shield, if it manages to re-enter successfully, “a half-ton metal object will be falling from the sky.”

The spacecraft is projected to re-enter around 51.7°N and 51.7°S, passing near London, Edmonton, Alberta, and Cape Horn, South America. However, given that much of the Earth is covered by water, “the chances are favorable.”