What Does Australia’s Vote Indicate for Climate Action in a Major Coal Economy?

Few voters have as much influence over climate change as Australians do.

In terms of per capita greenhouse gas emissions, only the US and Canada are close to Australia. The nation stands as one of the largest exporters of fossil fuels, significantly contributing to global warming by selling vast quantities of natural gas to Asian countries, alongside some of the most polluting fossil fuels.

As national elections approach this Saturday, polls indicate that climate change is not a primary concern for many voters. However, the leading candidates from the Labour Party and the Liberal Party hold starkly different views on climate and energy policies.

At the forefront is the reliance on aging coal plants, which dominate the country’s electricity generation.

“We’ve seen various approaches worldwide,” stated Andrew McIntosh, a professor of environmental law and policy at the Australian National University. “On one hand, there’s a push for expanding renewable energy, while on the other, a conservative coalition advocates for nuclear power.”

Both strategies aim to reduce emissions, according to McIntosh, though many remain puzzled by the nuclear initiative. Nuclear plants can take over a decade to build, while renewable energy solutions can be implemented in just a few months.

“We need to rely on coal for years to come,” he added.

In some ways, analysts compare the polarized situation in Australia to that in the US, where former President Donald J. Trump downplayed climate science, dismissing it as a scam. Matt McDonald, a political scientist specializing in climate matters at the University of Queensland, remarked:

However, instead of heightening Australians’ concerns about climate change, Trump’s criticisms “don’t seem to have generated significant international momentum to address the issue, effectively cooling tensions on both sides,” said Dr. McDonald.

If Australians are feeling pressure, it stems from surging household energy prices. According to Australian energy regulators, average energy costs have risen by approximately 60% over the last decade.

Anthony Albanese, the current Prime Minister and Labour Party leader, has committed to a relatively ambitious renewable energy target, aiming for over 80% generation by 2030.

“Yet,” Dr. MacDonald noted, “we still have a significant reliance on coal.”

Albanese’s main rival, Peter Dutton, heads a coalition that aims to increase domestic gas production for electricity generation. While gas is still a fossil fuel, it is far less polluting than coal. Dutton proposes requiring gas producers to sell portions of their output to Australian electricity grids while expediting approvals for new drilling projects.

Generally, both parties endorse gas development, with Australia being the second-largest gas exporter globally, following the US.

Polling indicates a competitive race, revealing that the Green Party and the so-called Teal Independents strongly advocate for robust climate policies and could play a crucial role in Congress. “If they maintain their current seats, they will be in a position to advocate more strongly for climate action, such as reducing coal exports,” Dr. McDonald said.

A significant question looming globally is whether Australia will host next year’s annual United Nations-sponsored Global Climate Conference, commonly known as COP. Australia is currently vying with Türkiye to secure this event, which comes with notable geopolitical significance and economic advantages, drawing tens of thousands of delegates.

Host countries typically influence the ambition levels of negotiations, and Prime Minister Albanese’s administration has been lobbying for international support for Australia’s bid for over a year. “If they are elected, it’s unlikely to happen under the coalition government,” Dr. McDonald concluded.