Why China Could Claim the Climate Leadership Role – If It Chooses To

Nature despises a vacuum, and geopolitical vacuums are no exception. As Donald Trump sets the stage to confront global warming, he is poised for the climate leadership that awaits. If Chinese President Xi Jinping aims to claim that mantle, it’s within his reach.

China’s climate credentials are a mixed bag. Since 2006, it has held the title of the largest greenhouse gas emitter due to rapid industrialization. Conversely, it has emerged as a leading manufacturer of solar panels globally.

Xi himself appears to be distancing from the international climate arena. He has not participated in any climate summits since Paris in 2015, when China committed to keeping global warming below 1.5°C. While numerous countries interpret this as an obligation to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050, China has pledged to reach carbon neutrality by 2060—a less ambitious target.

However, this landscape may be changing. As highlighted on page 10, China’s emissions seem to have peaked. Xi is also set to attend COP30 in Belem, Brazil this November. With a significant climate initiative emerging from China, what does this mean?

The most probable announcement is the commitment to a provisional target by 2040, halfway to 2060. Yet, if Xi aspires to lead the global climate movement, he should set a more ambitious zero emissions target for 2050. Achieving this would complicate matters for other countries and catalyze advancements in green technology.

Will Xi take that step? Likely not. However, with reports suggesting that COP30 may not meet expectations (see “Does the COP30 Climate Summit already take six months, six months?”), Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula Da Silva may help persuade Xi, as he has previously indicated a desire to maintain a more robust relationship with China. Should China assume the climate leadership role, Brazil stands to benefit significantly.