The Columbia River Treaty: A Key Factor in Trump’s Dispute with Canada

A little-known treaty that impacts millions of Americans and Canadians is currently entangled in the tariff dispute between the US and Canada.

This 60-year-old agreement regulates the waters flowing through the Columbia River, which extends from British Columbia to Montana, Idaho, Washington, and Oregon, and serves as the largest source of hydropower in the United States. However, parts of the treaty were set to expire during the presidential election in the US.

Negotiators were merely weeks away from finalizing the details of the treaty’s renewal when President Joseph R. Biden Jr. concluded his term. Subsequently, a decade’s worth of discussions faltered due to President Trump’s antagonism towards Canada, as he labeled Canada the “51st province,” imposed tariffs on Canadian exports, and referred to the water supply as a “major faucet.”

During a heated February call with then-Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, Trump brought the treaty into the conversation, suggesting Canada had exploited the United States. The implications were evident—it could become a leverage point in broader discussions aimed at redefining relations between the two nations.

Last week, at a White House meeting, Prime Minister Mark Carney and Trump avoided confrontation. However, the Trump administration perceives negotiations as being precariously balanced, even over treaties that are mutually beneficial. The unpredictability of Trump’s trade policies has cast a shadow over the future of the Pacific Northwest, heightening concerns about issues ranging from electricity supply to flood management.

Fueled by the internet and AI, data centers are leveraging the Columbia River’s hydroelectric power. A local dam supports the Twilight Soccer Game at Riverfront Parks, while irrigation from the reservoir nurtures the sprawling acres of Pink Women and Gala Apple gardens. Coordinated dam operations are crucial in preventing flooding, particularly in areas like Portland, Oregon.

Trump’s comments have resonated negatively with Canadians, who have long feared that the US seeks to exploit its natural resources, especially water. “They want our land, resources, and water,” Carney repeatedly emphasized during his term.

“Canadians experience a sense of betrayal,” Jay Inslee, former governor of Washington, remarked in an interview. The treaty interweaves a complex tapestry of cultural and economic interests. “Negotiating this is not straightforward,” Inslee added.

A spokesperson from British Columbia reported that there has been “no progress whatsoever” since the US State Department suspended negotiations in the broader context of reviewing international commitments. State Energy Minister Adrian Dix told nearly 600 attendees at a virtual town hall in March, “It sounds like a strange representation of the current situation.”

Dix noted that locals approached him in Save-on-Food markets, questioning whether Canada should exit the treaty altogether. “For residents in the Columbia Basin, this is intrinsic,” he stated. “It’s part of their lives, history, and identity.”

If the agreement collapses, the US anticipates it will be “more challenging to manage and predict” hydroelectric output to mitigate flooding in the Pacific Northwest, according to a nonpartisan Congressional report. It is projected that the region’s electricity demand may double within the next two decades, as anticipated by the Interstate Electricity Council.

The State Department has opted not to comment.

The origins of the treaty trace back to the events of 1948, following the Great Spring rains when the 15-foot wall of Vanport, Oregon—home to thousands of shipyard workers during World War II—collapsed. The calamity left 18,000 homeless and catalyzed negotiations with Canada to improve management of the Columbia River.

On one of President Dwight D. Eisenhower’s inauguration days, he ratified the Columbia River Treaty. This agreement exchanged commitments: Canada consented to construct multiple dams to manage flood control for the US, while the US agreed to provide Canada half of the extra electricity generated from the jointly managed river flows.

The original treaty came into effect in the autumn of 1964, with some provisions expiring 60 years later.

Discussions regarding the renewal of the treaty before it lapses in 2024 began during Trump’s first term. Biden temporarily halted them before resuming. In March 2023, the complete congressional delegation from the Pacific Northwest urged the President to expedite the negotiation process. Following a slow start, the US and Canada unveiled a preliminary outline of the agreement last summer.

The electricity generated under the initial treaty proved to be significantly more valuable than originally anticipated, bringing in around $300 million annually to Canada. This surplus prompted Canada to sell extensive amounts of power to the US, causing frustration among US utilities.

The updated agreement aims to reduce Canada’s share by about half over time, allowing the US to retain more electricity amid growing energy demands.

The Columbia River’s cheap and clean hydroelectric power has attracted high-tech companies intent on establishing data centers over the last two decades.

“The nation must recognize the significance of the Pacific Northwest in its burgeoning energy landscape,” stated David Kennedy, a scholar of local history at Stanford.

In the renewed treaty, Canada has decreased the obligation to maintain water storage for flood management, allowing for better prioritization of local communities and ecosystems around the reservoir. The original agreement led to drastic water level fluctuations that exposed extensive land when snowmelt resulted in lower levels.

“Each year, this exposed ground causes severe dust issues,” recounted a resident near Valemount, British Columbia, during the town hall.

The new plan aims to stabilize reservoir levels, enabling Canada to rehabilitate coastal ecosystems and enhance recreational opportunities.

Indigenous tribes were consulted during negotiations, but the initial treaty did not address the destruction of fishing grounds and towns due to dam constructions.

Jay Johnson, a negotiator for the Syilx Okanagan Nation, mentioned during the virtual town hall that tribes on both sides of the border have united to restore salmon migration. The updated framework includes provisions for excess water during dry periods, vital for salmon survival, especially considering climate change.

In the fall, when certain provisions of the original treaty lapse, the state established a three-year interim agreement, though additional parliamentary funding is still required. Both parties must provide ten years’ notice should they choose to withdraw from the treaty.

“This arrangement benefits individuals on both sides of the border; complications arise without a treaty,” noted Jonathan Wilkinson, Canadian Minister of Energy and Natural Resources.

The next steps remain uncertain. While some individuals involved in the negotiations remain in their positions, Trump has yet to appoint a deputy secretary for Western Hemisphere affairs. The situation is further complicated as Trump seeks to trim staff at key federal agencies involved in treaty discussions, including the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the Federal Power Administration.

With negotiations in limbo, stakeholders involved in the discussions remain hopeful for a resolution on the renewed treaty.

Barbara Kossense, a law professor at the University of Idaho, emphasized that while the Trump administration may not prioritize salmon habitats or Indigenous involvement, Canada does. Water can flow downstream, but salmon swim upstream, and the US could benefit from adhering to environmental provisions, Kossense asserted.

Additionally, supporters highlight years of bipartisan backing from Senator Maria Cantwell of Washington, a leading Democrat on the Senate Commerce Committee, and Jim Lisch of Idaho, Republican chair of the Senate Committee on Foreign Affairs.

“There will be unanimous agreement on this, irrespective of party lines,” declared Scott Sims, chief executive of the Public Power Council, which represents consumer-owned utilities in the region.

The stakes are tangible. In 1996, following heavy snowfall, a storm known as the Pineapple Express unleashed heavy rainfall in the Portland area, causing significant flooding. The Army Corps of Engineers worked diligently for several days, operating over 60 dams within the Columbia River System in conjunction with Canadian partners to mitigate flooding issues.

A smaller river in Columbia experienced flooding that resulted in eight casualties. Downtown Portland narrowly avoided disaster thanks to makeshift embankments created from plywood and sandbags.

Ivan Penn Contributed report from Houston Matina Stevis-Gridneff From Toronto.