The impact of tariffs on digital commerce businesses

This year was supposed to be a banner moment for digital commerce companies.

Digital payment giant Klarna was preparing for the first public offer. So did the financial services company Chime. StubHub, an online ticketing business, has been talking to bankers for months about their pursuit of an IPO.

But after President Trump announced the tariff barrage this week, businesses in the industry were rushing to deal with fallout.

Among other moves, Klarna, Chime and Stubhub are all aiming to suspend their IPO plans and wait for market volatility, people with knowledge of the issue said. Additionally, companies that provide payment processing services to online merchants such as Shopify are calling for changes to Trump’s customs policy and are advising customers on how to survive potential financial difficulties. Stripe, payment startups, and Block, a payment and remittance service company previously known as Square, is in a similar move.

It may seem counterintuitive that tariffs bring pain to digital commerce companies. However, these businesses are set up to be affected in a roundabout way.

Retailers like Amazon, which act as clearing houses for online merchants, can feel the impact when fewer people buy foreign exports on their platforms. Companies like Klarna benefit from the fees that charge small businesses for processing digital payments.

“If this chicken game continues until 2025 and continues for longer, this will be extremely painful for the retail industry as a whole,” said Shut Alitakodali, an analyst at Forester, which covers retail and e-commerce. “That would be bad for everyone.”

On Wednesday, Trump said tariffs would reverse decades of what he called unfair treatment in other parts of the world, bringing factories and jobs back to the United States. “The market will be booming,” he said, “the country will be booming.”

However, tariffs are far more wide and more severe than expected, and many tech companies quickly began to feel pain. Apple, Oracle and Dell have global supply chains that are likely to be destroyed by tariffs, but were the most obvious candidates facing fallout.

Digital-first companies dealing in online sales can lose just as much. For example, Meta and Google have been pressured by the threat of bringing back companies, particularly Chinese companies, to buy e-commerce ads on their platforms.

Amazon, the largest e-commerce company, has slid over 9% of its stake in the millions of third-party sellers who ship goods from China (one of the countries that was hit hardest by Trump’s tariffs) since the tariffs have been announced.

TD Cowen analyst John Blackledge has lowered Amazon revenue, operating profit and estimates of 3% to 4% during 2020, particularly as Trump’s “worse than expected” tariffs hurt the company’s market.

Some digital commerce companies could survive the chaos. StubHub, which sells tickets to live events, bounced back after the recession during Covid Pandemic and the 2008 financial crisis. Additionally, Chime customers who provide digital services such as mobile banking apps and checking accounts tend to use their products to buy items such as gasoline and groceries that are usually not sensitive to economic fluctuations.

But Shopify, Klarna and Stripe are all vulnerable to Trump’s tariffs. Payment processing platforms like Stripe tend to be trending due to the global economy and the strength of online shopping. If a large company raises prices due to tariffs, consumers may purchase fewer products online. Additionally, these companies earn a large portion of their revenue from commissions to process sellers’ sales, so lower sales volumes can affect all businesses.

Klarna, Stubhub, Chime and Stripe declined to comment. For more information about Klarna, Stubhub and Chime’s IPO plans, see Wall Street Journal and axios.

A Shopify spokesperson pointed to a recent blog post advising sellers on how to navigate a choppy environment if tariffs hinder their business.

“Without small business protection, legitimate entrepreneurs suffer under policies aimed at curbing exploitation,” the company said. In a blog post. “This hiking cost will disrupt supply chains and hinder trade across borders.”

The company said it supported Trump to address several loopholes in the tariff system. This includes the “de minimis exemption,” in which businesses exempt customs duties on exports to the United States of less than $800.

However, they warned against overdone policies. “Dealing with this abuse is justified, but small businesses cannot be a secondary damage,” Shopify says.

Michael J. de la Mercedo Reports of contributions.