In the 19th and early 20th century, “women and children first” was seen as a chivalric ideal. It was a moral code of conduct. The concept “was celebrated as a long-standing practice – a ‘tradition’, ‘law of human nature’ and ‘handed down in the race’.
Japan is leading the way in a crisis of population collapse. Japan had peak woman about 53 years ago in 1970. This was also about the time they had peak children.
During Japan’s first postwar baby boom (1947–49), there were 2.5 million births a year. In the second baby boom (1971–74), there were 2 million annual births.
Japan’s population peaked in 2008. By the time Japan’s overall population peaked, the number of fertile women had fallen in half. The total fertility in 1974. The number of fertile women is dropping and the number of babies each is having is dropping. Japan is now at less than one-third of its peak baby years.
A species is classified as endangered when its population has declined at least 70 percent and the cause of the decline is known. A species is also classified as endangered when its population has declined at least 50 percent and the cause of the decline is not known. I would argue that we do NOT have a clear understanding of the decline. Yes, we know women are choosing not to have children, but this is widespread to every moderately industrialized nation. Urbanization is also anti-baby and anti-family.
Is technology, development and wealth fatal to an intelligent species?
Some people are anti-human. They say less humans is good for the planet. In a healthy civilization such views would be outliers and at the fringe.
So all of the concerns about climate, energy and overpopulation are wrong. We can easily support 100 billion people on Earth in a very responsible way. We can also restore fish levels and reforest the planet.
As a species, we have to get serious about saving the women and future children. We need to get serious about fixing the problems. The supposed big problems like climate change and electrifying transportation are all solvable.
We definitely do NOT know how to get human populations back to replacement or above. The best efforts of Japan and Europe spending hundreds of billions of dollars is to get fertility rates up about 20% for a decade or so. This is mostly pull forward births. The government pays the people and they have the baby they were already planning on five years earlier.
If Japan’s population falls below 100 million by 2050 (which it will based upon current projections), then IF Japanese people were a species then they would be classified as vulnerable. Japan’s population could halve before 2100 which would make them endangered.
Countries like South Korea that have a total fertility rate of 0.78 would end up with population dropping to 70-80% below current levels by 2100. This would put those countries into the critically endangered category.
For Japan, to stabilize its population, they will need a baby boom for decade or two where they go to a total fertility rate of 2.5 to 3.0 and then hold 2.1 to 2.2 fertility rate.
Europe had peak female 40 years ago and Europe’s overall population peaked about four years ago.
There is about a 40 year lag from peak female and peak baby and peak population. Asia as whole may have hit peak female 12 years ago.
The future Asian numbers are likely much worse than the UN projections. China has been at total fertility rate of 1.18 for the past three years which is 0.3 below UN population division expectations. India is also 0.2 TFR below expectations. The whole world could end up 500 million to 1 billion people below the mid UN forecast. The large errors on China and India could mean the world is already at below replacement rate of 2.1. The UN had been expecting to hold TFR 2.2 for a 2-4 decades.
The whole world may have hit peak female 8 years ago.
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
Known for identifying cutting edge technologies, he is currently a Co-Founder of a startup and fundraiser for high potential early-stage companies. He is the Head of Research for Allocations for deep technology investments and an Angel Investor at Space Angels.
A frequent speaker at corporations, he has been a TEDx speaker, a Singularity University speaker and guest at numerous interviews for radio and podcasts. He is open to public speaking and advising engagements.
Category: Science
Source: Next Big Future
