The total fertility rate — the average number of children a woman is estimated to bear in her lifetime — fell to 1.26, on par with the record low in 2005.
The pace of decline in the number of births has also been accelerating in recent years, falling by 24,404 in 2020 from the previous year, and by 29,213 in 2021.
The population pyramid projection for 2027 for Japan was projecting 4.082 million Japanese babies for 2023-2027. This would mean averaging 816,000 babies annually. Japan is coming in 45,000 babies annually short of that projection and if the drops continue Japan could be at 600k-700k babies annually in 2027. The population pyramids and projections were assuming that Japan could hold at 810,000 per year. The shortage of Japanese babies means that population trends are even worse than 103.7 million in 2050. Instead of 9 million fertile women between 18-38 there would be 8 million.
The Japanese women who are aging out of fertility now are 35-39 years old. There were 660,000 women per year in those years. Japan will be losing 70% of its fertile age women. Each 5 year group is about 100k per year less women.
The fertility data comes a day after Prime Minister Fumio Kishida released a draft plan to boost “unparalleled” child-rearing support, although the announcement has raised questions about its effectiveness in turning around the falling birthrate.
The fertility rate in Japan had recovered to 1.45 in 2015, but has been on a downward trend since 2016. Getting fertility temporarily up to 1.45 from 1.3 earlier cost about $200 billion. Having a working age population that is 10% less is costing but also averaging 48 years of age instead of 35-40 is costing Japan 20-30% of GDP or about $1 to 1.5 trillion each year.
This is before Japan loses 20-30% of its population over the next 30 years. Japan has lost about 5% of its people over the last 15 years. The population birth spiral does not stop in 30 years, it keeps spiraling downward with fewer fertile women. Until birthrates get back over 2.1 replacement and stay there then there is no population stabilization.
Well, so what, some might say. This will mean all pension systems will collapse. There will be no state support for retirement. If there is less than one working age person to each old person, the math of taking some taxes and giving it to the old person to live becomes scraps. The old person will have to keep working until they drop. If 40-50% of the population is old people then they do not spend money. The economy shrinks massively.
If it persisted then how would we keep the systems of civilization running?
The Black Death causes 30-50% population loss in seven years. If Japan loses 20% of its population in the 30 years and most of them are old (65+, 75+) and the average age is 55, then we will see if economic systems break.
If China loses the entire population of the USA by 2050 going from 1.41 billion to 1.1 billion with TFR of 1.1, then will this end up with some quiet and peaceful scenario? Russia had population loss and started a war with Ukraine.
What happens with national debts of countries that start collapsing? Will the world banking system hold up?
It is just those countries, it is not like Japan or China have globally important banks or the aging Europeans.
At the start of the COVID pandemic, people thought it was just a China problem. China was locking down whole provinces the size of European countries. Populations that are already shrinking : China, Japan, Italy, Spain, Russia, South Korea. (20% of the world’s population).
You don’t have to worry about a population crisis in Japan…or China etc… People ignored the pandemic for the 6 months and that worked out great.
Also, only rich countries can afford to develop and pay for technology to fix things like climate change. Africa has to get loans and technology to transition off fossil fuels. Poor countries just burn coal.
Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has made arresting the country’s sliding birth rate a top priority and his government, despite high levels of debt, plans to earmark the spending of 3.5 trillion yen ($25bn) a year on child care and other measures to support parents.
“The youth population will start decreasing drastically in the 2030s. The period of time until then is our last chance to reverse the trend of dwindling births,” he said this week while visiting a daycare facility.
Over 70% of the world is below replacement level. This includes poor countries like India, Vietnam, Bangladesh. Indonesia and Cambodia are close at 2.2 to 2.3.
China will be losing 10 million people per year from its working age population from 2027-2050. Japan will be losing 1 million people per year from its working age population from 2023-2050. The working age populations for China, Japan, Italy and Spain will be about 20-30% smaller in 2050 than today.
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
Known for identifying cutting edge technologies, he is currently a Co-Founder of a startup and fundraiser for high potential early-stage companies. He is the Head of Research for Allocations for deep technology investments and an Angel Investor at Space Angels.
A frequent speaker at corporations, he has been a TEDx speaker, a Singularity University speaker and guest at numerous interviews for radio and podcasts. He is open to public speaking and advising engagements.
Category: Science
Source: Next Big Future
