The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) announced on Thursday that the upcoming months could be very active in terms of hurricanes. This season’s projections, released in May, are the highest ever recorded by NOAA at this time of year.
NOAA administrator Rick Spinrad stated at a news conference that the forecast includes between 8 and 13 hurricanes, as well as 17 to 25 named storms. Conditions such as record warmth in the Atlantic and the likelihood of a La Niña weather event have led to an 85 percent chance of an above-normal hurricane season along the Atlantic coast.
NOAA is not alone in these predictions, as various other public, private, and government hurricane forecast services are also expecting a busy season. One such website, run by Colorado State University and the Barcelona Supercomputing Center, aggregates forecasts from 23 centers annually.
NOAA’s forecasts align with the average predictions made by these services, with an expected total of 23 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and five major hurricanes. This could potentially be the third-highest number of storms on record.
The combination of record sea surface temperatures and the absence of El Niño makes forecasters confident that this season could be significant. Despite the high forecast, it is uncertain where exactly these storms will make landfall in the US.
Brian McNoldy, a senior research scientist at the University of Miami, expressed concern over the record sea surface temperatures potentially leading to an increase in hurricane-force winds near the coast. “We’re certainly in uncharted territory. As someone who lives in a pretty hurricane-prone part of the coastline, I’m not too excited about it,” McNoldy said.
Source: www.nbcnews.com
