Satellite image of Hurricane Melissa captured on October 28
Associated Press/Alamy Stock Photo
Jamaica is facing severe impacts from what is possibly the strongest hurricane to hit the Atlantic Ocean. Current forecasts predict up to 1 meter (40 inches) of rainfall. There’s little doubt that global warming has intensified Hurricane Melissa.
According to the authors, the warm waters that sped up Melissa’s intensification are 500 to 700 times more likely due to climate change. Initial assessments by Daniel Guilford and his colleagues at Climate Central, a U.S. non-profit organization, reveal this.
“‘500 to 700 times more likely’ is an astonishing figure,” Guilford stated. “This clearly indicates that the extreme temperatures observed around Melissa would not be feasible without human-induced climate change.”
Tropical storms like Melissa draw their energy from warm ocean waters. The hotter the sea surface, the more water vapor is generated when a storm passes above it. As the warm, moist air rises, the vapor condenses and releases latent heat, warming the air and encouraging further condensation. This process fuels tropical cyclones.
In the central Caribbean, where Melissa rapidly intensified into a Category 5 hurricane, sea surface temperatures were 1.4 degrees Celsius (2.5 degrees Fahrenheit) above the October average. Since these extreme temperatures penetrate to significant depths, there is abundant excess thermal energy available in the ocean.
This indicates that sea surface temperatures remain elevated as Melissa churns the ocean and draws up cooler, deeper water. Conversely, if only a thin layer of warm water exists, the storm brings up cold water, cutting off its energy supply.
“A perfect storm continues to build for Hurricane Melissa. The warm ocean has been rapidly strengthening over recent days, and its slow movement may bring additional rainfall as it makes landfall,” stated Lian Archer, a researcher at the University of Bristol in the UK. “Many of these conditions are being exacerbated by heightened heat in the oceans and atmosphere attributable to climate change.”
The combination of powerful winds and extreme rainfall poses a significant risk of severe damage to Jamaica. So far, three lives have been lost as preparations for the storm continue, which is expected to make landfall around 11 a.m. or noon local time.
“This is one of the most troubling scenarios,” remarked Hannah Cloke, a researcher at the University of Reading in the UK. “The entire nation will suffer long-term and potentially permanent damage from this storm, and recovery will require significant effort for those affected.”
Research into past disasters suggests that such events can depress economic growth for decades. While economists propose that quicker recovery or even growth driven by recovery efforts is possible, these notions have generally proven to be overly optimistic.
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Source: www.newscientist.com
