Tony Blair’s think tank suggests that artificial intelligence may displace 1 to 3 million private sector jobs in the UK. However, the growth in technology is expected to create new roles, leading to a decline in the overall unemployment rate, with an increase of low hundreds of thousands.
During the peak of this disruption, government estimates indicate that 60,000 to 275,000 jobs could be lost annually for several decades. The Tony Blair Institute (TBI) has proposed this scenario.
Given that the average number of unemployed individuals in the UK has been around 450,000 per year over the past decade, Blair considers the estimated figures relatively modest. Currently, more than 33 million people are employed in the UK.
Artificial intelligence, a technology that encompasses computer systems performing tasks requiring human intelligence, has gained significant political attention following advancements like ChatGPT chatbots. TBI suggests that the long-term job losses due to AI impact are expected to be relatively small.
The report “Impact of AI on the Labor Market” indicates that the impact of AI on unemployment is likely to diminish over time, with AI creating new job demands and drawing workers back into the economy. The report states that AI may prompt workers to transition to new jobs, enhancing labor market dynamism.
To address this potential shift, TBI recommends upgrading the UK’s labor market infrastructure with an early warning system to alert workers about AI’s impact on their jobs.
The introduction of AI is projected to boost GDP by up to 1% over the next five years and up to 6% by 2035. However, unemployment may increase by 180,000 individuals by 2030, with around 1.4 million people currently unemployed in the UK.
While acknowledging AI’s role as a significant policy challenge, TBI emphasizes that the impact of AI scenarios relies on emerging tools, private sector investments, and government policies that accelerate or delay adoption.
Despite AI potentially replacing certain jobs, TBI believes it can create more job opportunities by enhancing worker productivity, thereby contributing to economic growth. The think tank highlights potential job creation through innovation in new products and areas, necessitating new tasks and roles for employees.
TBI notes that administrative, secretarial, sales, customer service, banking, and finance jobs are most at risk of AI impact due to the technology’s time-saving capabilities.
The efficiencies from AI are projected to derive mostly from cognitive tasks like chatbots, rather than physical tasks performed by AI-enabled hardware like robots. Sectors involving complex manual labor, such as construction, are deemed less vulnerable.
Nevertheless, routine cognitive tasks and data-intensive industries like banking and finance are likely to be affected due to the ease of training AI models in these sectors.
Initially, unemployment may rise as companies exploit AI’s time-saving benefits, potentially leading to job cuts as private sector employees estimate they could save significant time through AI implementation.
Source: www.theguardian.com
