Report finds that Hurricane Helen had increased rainfall and stronger winds as a result of climate change

As Hurricane Milton hurtles toward Florida’s west coast, a new report estimates how intense Hurricane Helen’s winds and rain could have been due to climate change. Scientists involved in the study said they expected Milton to do the same, and that it would likely get worse because of climate change.

The report, released late Wednesday night, is from the World Weather Attribution Group, a consortium of scientists that analyzes extreme weather events and determines how much climate change has influenced certain events. He is regarded as the leading expert in making decisions.

The findings show that because of climate change, Hurricane Helen’s wind speeds were 11% more intense and its precipitation totals were about 10% higher.

Friederike Otto, a climate scientist at Imperial College London who contributed to the new study, said “we now have a complete study showing a very clear link” between climate change and hurricane strength. “The biggest danger is not making the connection to climate change.”

Like Hurricane Helen, Hurricane Milton is also moving through record-breaking heat. Sea surface temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico are much warmer than usual, even for this time of year. Warmer water acts as fuel for such storms, helping them intensify faster.

Both hurricanes undergo a process known as rapid intensification, where the hurricane’s sustained wind speeds increase by at least 35 miles per hour over a 24-hour period. This trend is becoming more common due to climate change.

The report says the sea surface temperatures that pushed Helen and Milton up were 200 to 500 times warmer due to climate change.

On Monday, Milton experienced a dramatic pressure drop in the center of the hurricane, strengthening to one of the fifth strongest hurricanes ever recorded.

“This storm is definitely explosive,” said Bernadette Woods Plucky, chief meteorologist at the nonprofit research group Climate Central and co-author of the new report.

Using a combination of statistical analysis and detailed climate modeling, the researchers found that climate change and the fossil fuel pollution it causes are about 2.5 times more likely to produce a hurricane as strong as Helen.

This is the third and most extensive preliminary report linking climate change to the heavy rains that killed more than 200 people after Hurricane Helen made landfall in Florida’s Big Bend region on September 26.

Scientists at World Weather Attribution examined rainfall over two days along the coast of Florida, where Helen first hit, and three days of rainfall in mountainous areas in six neighboring states, including North Carolina and Tennessee. Assessed quantity.

They found that coastal rainfall totals are 40% more likely to be this high due to climate change, and inland rainfall totals are 70% more likely to be this high due to climate change. I discovered that there is a sex.

Helen flooded parts of southern Appalachia with more than 6 feet of rain. Floodwaters washed away houses, washed out highways, and cut off access to the town. Much of the recovery work is just beginning.

The World Weather Attribution group is a loose confederation of scientists who rapidly publish extreme findings about whether and how climate change has affected particular events. Twenty-one researchers participated in the new analysis. Although the group uses peer-review methods, its findings are published prior to traditional peer-review when events are new and particularly newsworthy. Previous studies on global weather attribution have withstood further scrutiny by outside scientists and been published in major scientific journals.

Otto said the new results are consistent with two previous analyzes of the effects of climate change on Hurricane Helen, but different researchers defined the parameters of the study in different ways, and there are different He said each report produced different numbers because they focused on geography.

Scientists at World Weather Attribution will run the numbers again for Milton and write a new report.