US Lab Closure Will Significantly Hinder Climate Research

The decision by the Trump administration to shut down the premier center for atmospheric research could jeopardize weather forecasting and climate modeling, increasing the risks posed by global warming.

In a statement to USA Today, White House official Russ Vought mentioned that the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) is viewed as a source of “climate change concerns” and will be disbanded. The plan includes the discontinuation of Green New Fraud Research, with “essential capacities” like weather modeling and supercomputing to be relocated.

NCAR’s models provide vital support for reports from the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which are crucial for countries in establishing measures to lower carbon emissions and adapt to severe weather.

“Ceasing operations would amplify uncertainty regarding our climate future and hinder our preparation efforts,” asserts Michael Meredith from the British Antarctic Survey. “It’s difficult to view this as anything other than silencing the messenger.”

Established in 1960 to advance atmospheric science, NCAR employs 830 individuals conducting research that spans “from the ocean floor to the core of the sun.” According to its unofficial motto, it manages programs monitoring everything from floods and wildfires to space weather.

NCAR developed the GPS dropsonde, a device equipped with sensors that is deployed into hurricanes, significantly enhancing our understanding of tropical cyclones. This has started a revolution in weather research. The researchers also designed a wind shear warning system for airports, saving numerous lives by preventing crashes.

However, one of its major contributions lies in providing data, modeling, and supercomputing resources to other researching entities. Weather Underground, one of the pioneers in offering localized weather forecasts online in the 1990s, credits its founding on the software and weather data developed by NCAR, according to meteorologist Jeff Masters.

NCAR is responsible for developing and managing weather research and forecasting models that are extensively utilized for daily forecasts and regional climate studies. They will continue to collaborate with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration to enhance weather modeling aimed at predicting extreme storms.

If this critical work faces disruption, it could lead to a decline in the accuracy of weather apps and TV news forecasts at a time when abnormal weather patterns are increasingly frequent. Masters likens the situation to “halting weapons research and development on the eve of World War II.”

“Without knowledge of impending dangers, more lives will be at stake,” he warns.

NCAR oversees the Community Earth System Model (CESM), the first global climate model developed specifically for universities. CESM facilitates diverse research efforts, from estimating current global carbon emissions to predicting upcoming changes in ocean currents, heat wave frequency, and ice melt.

“This model is arguably the most utilized globally,” states Richard Rood at the University of Michigan.

Twice a year, NCAR organizes user meetings to gather insights on improving the model, which can be operated on a server or downloaded for local modifications. The closure may jeopardize the ongoing maintenance and development of CESM and its bug fixes.

Colin Carlson from Yale University was among numerous scientists who took to social media to highlight NCAR’s importance. He utilizes climate models to predict the requirements for cholera and yellow fever vaccines as the climate evolves and anticipates dengue fever outbreaks in Florida. “We need NCAR to perform our roles effectively,” Carlson emphasized in a recent post.

NCAR also operates a modified C-130 cargo plane and a Gulfstream business jet designed for research purposes, reaching the stratosphere and facilitating the operation of King Air propeller planes that study cloud physics.

From 2009 to 2011, the Gulfstream jet successfully conducted its inaugural comprehensive flight, traversing from the North to South Poles multiple times and reaching altitudes between 150 meters and 9000 meters. Their investigation measured CO₂ and other atmospheric gases. They also gathered data on solar corona during the 2017 solar eclipse.

Rood noted that the aircraft assists in monitoring air pollution and calibrating satellite instruments.

The research conducted by NCAR on aerosols is crucial for understanding geoengineering effects, especially proposals aimed at mitigating abrupt climate changes through aerosol diffusion to shield sunlight.

“Elimination of such climate research will lead to decisions regarding geoengineering and tipping points being made in a blind manner,” Rood cautioned.