An index identifies undersea cables near Taiwan, Japan, and the Philippines as being at particularly high risk, citing both geopolitical tensions and the region’s shallow, congested shipping lanes. Several of the 10 trans-Pacific cables considered most vulnerable are still under development and have significant US corporate ownership. The report warns that failures could sharply reduce communications capacity between the United States and the Indo-Pacific, with serious consequences for internet services, cloud computing, and financial transactions.
The risks are highest around Taiwan, Japan, and the Philippines. This is partly because of China’s sovereignty claims over Taiwan, but also because undersea cables connecting the region with the United States must pass through shallow waters and busy shipping lanes.
Several of the 10 trans-Pacific cables identified as most at risk are still under development and have significant ownership by US companies. They include the TPU project, owned by Google; the ORCA cable, owned by Meta; and the E2A cable, jointly owned by Verizon and companies from Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan. All three projects received risk scores in the top five.
The report’s authors warned that a major failure of a single trans-Pacific cable would “devastate the capacity currently available for direct routing between the United States, Taiwan, Japan, and the Philippines, and risk sending data down slower, less direct routes.”
A larger disruption involving multiple cables during a geopolitical crisis involving Taiwan could force communications between the United States and the Indo-Pacific to travel through cables in other parts of the world. That could “drastically reduc[e] headroom and even overwhelm[] the entire trans-Pacific capacity,” the report said. Such an event could have a major economic impact on internet communications, cloud services, and financial transactions.
Dual-use technology and research vessels
The concerns come as major powers continue to expand their fleets of military submarines and undersea drones. They are also developing and deploying dual-use technologies, including undersea cable cutters that can be used for both repairs and sabotage.
According to one report, China has deployed a research fleet equipped with undersea-mapping technology near a cable crossing the Pacific Ocean. A separate report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a Washington, DC-based think tank, was published in October 2026.
Source: arstechnica.com
