After Spike’s Review: A Controversial New Book Argues for Persuading People to Increase Birth Rates

After the Spikes

Dean Spears and Michael Geruso (Bodley Head (UK); Simon & Schuster (US))

Current estimates suggest that four-fifths of all humans who will ever be born have already come into existence. The global number of births peaked at 146 million in 2012 and has been on a decline ever since, indicating that the world population is set to peak and decrease by the 2080s.

This decrease won’t be gradual. Fertility rates are already below replacement level in several nations, including China and India, leading to a rapid decline in population as quickly as it rose. This new controversial book argues that the planet could hold fewer than two billion people in the coming centuries.

“There’s no scenario where individuals worldwide are likely to opt for fewer children than required to replace themselves, leading to a drastic population reduction,” assert economists Dean Spears and Michael Geruso in After the Spike: Risks of Global Depopulation and Cases for People.

You might consider this a positive development. Could it help alleviate pressing environmental challenges? Not according to the authors. They assert that while population size does hold significance, adjusting other factors, such as the speed of global warming, is even more critical. The chance to lessen our carbon footprint through population reduction has mostly passed.

Spears and Geruso highlight numerous advantages of a large population. More individuals can lead to greater innovation and economies of scale, making technologies like smartphones feasible. “The abundance of neighbors enhances our potential,” they state.

Thus, their perspective is not about reducing the global population but rather stabilizing it. The challenge lies in the fact that even with the right political determination, the path to achieve this is unclear.

The authors contend that while some government strategies may yield short-term results, no country has sustainably altered long-term demographic trends. Consider China’s one-child policy—it is often credited with curtailing population growth but did it genuinely do so? Spears and Geruso present ambiguous data on China’s population in relation to its neighbors before, during, and after these policies were enacted, raising the question of discernible differences based on their observations.

Efforts to reverse the declining fertility rates have also faced failure, they argue. In Romania, after the ban on abortion in 1966, birth rates surged but soon declined again. Sweden’s approach has been to incentivize through subsidies for childcare, yet its fertility rates remain below replacement level.

Attempts to boost fertility with financial incentives are likely doomed to fail, according to Spears and Geruso. While some claim that they would have more children if financial means allowed, the reality is that as people gain wealth, the tendency to have fewer children increases.

The focus should be on addressing what individuals need to balance rather than simply financial capability, according to the authors. As affluence grows, there is a reluctance to sacrifice careers and leisure for childbearing. Even technological advancements are not expected to change this trajectory, they conclude.

This book presents an unwaveringly optimistic viewpoint regarding many issues, but it acknowledges the complexity of stabilizing population levels. It effectively demonstrates that dire predictions of widespread famine with population growth have proven incorrect and suggests long-term trends toward healthier, longer lives remain possible. “Fears of a depleted, overpopulated future are outdated,” they argue.

But is that truly the case? Spears and Geruso also emphasize that food prices play a key role in determining hunger levels, yet it’s worth noting that food prices are presently rising as a consequence of escalating climate change. For a substantial portion of the population, uncertainty persists regarding whether conditions will continue to improve.

This book is undoubtedly provocative and may not provide an easy read, as Spears and Geruso delve into their primary assertions. However, if you believe that understanding the impact of a declining population is simple, and if you consider it a positive trend, this book is essential reading.

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