Volunteers engage in efforts to combat wildfires near Stamata, Greece in 2024
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In light of current climate trends, Europe may grapple with summer heatwaves and severe droughts that could leave large parts of the continent enduring weeks of extreme temperatures, water shortages, and soaring energy costs.
Recent research aims to delineate the “worst-case scenario” regarding heat and drought potential during summer months in Central and Western Europe.
Laura Suarez-Gutierrez from Switzerland’s ETH Zurich and her team initiated their research with seven simulations based on climate models representing heatwaves. They systematically introduced minor variations to the initial atmospheric conditions of the models and assessed different potential outcomes, utilizing a method called ensemble boosting, resulting in more severe heat waves in each simulation.
“Each iteration generates numerous events with slight adjustments in the initial model state,” noted Vicki Thompson from the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, which did not participate in the research. “The most severe scenarios they present suggest that such outcomes could occur right now.”
While many simulations failed to produce heatwaves, some resulted in significantly harsher heatwaves and droughts compared to historical records.
In the most extreme scenario, temperatures may soar to 45°C (113°F) for over a month in certain regions, accompanied by severe droughts. Events of this nature far exceed the heat and drought phenomena experienced in 2003 or 2018.
Additionally alarming is that this modeling implies that the most intense heat waves tend to follow each other closely, potentially leaving Europe in a cycle of extreme summers that heavily burden both humans and ecosystems. This increases the likelihood of wildfires, drought, energy and food shortages, and ecosystem collapse, experts warn.
“Our findings illuminate the potential effects of unprecedented combinations of heat, fire weather, and soil drought,” the researchers remarked.
This cycle of persistent heat waves and prolonged drought may be partly attributed to soil drying out due to extreme heat, explains Pascal Iu from the Institute for Climate and Environmental Sciences in France. One heatwave can deplete soil moisture and exacerbate extreme heat, stating, “Drier soil conditions can foster atmospheric systems that persist for extended periods.”
While Yiou collaborated with Suarez-Gutierrez, he was not part of the study. He emphasized that these worst-case scenarios are feasible outcomes given current climatic conditions. “They are not suggesting these events will definitely occur, rather they are indicating that such scenarios are possible,” he mentions. He drew a parallel with the 2021 heatwave in western North America, which shattered temperature records and became the deadliest weather event in Canadian history, made possible by very atypical atmospheric conditions that caused extraordinary heat levels.
“The goal is to establish optimal conditions for extreme events,” said Jana Sillmann at the International Climate Research Centre in Norway. This aids decision-makers in refining their emergency response plans, preparing for potential occurrences of record-breaking heatwaves in a single summer.
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Source: www.newscientist.com
