Initial predictions for the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season indicate that it could be particularly severe and potentially break records.
Colorado State University, a renowned center for hurricane and tropical weather forecasting, has released forecasts stating that there could be 11 hurricanes, with five of them potentially reaching Category 3, 4, or 5 status, which means wind speeds of at least 111 mph. In total, researchers anticipate 23 named storms for this season.
“This is the most accurate forecast we’ve made for April,” stated Colorado meteorologist and Atlantic hurricane forecaster Philip Klotzbach during a video news conference.
On average, an Atlantic hurricane season typically sees 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher), according to the National Hurricane Center.
The primary reasons for the above-average expectations for the upcoming season (June 1 to November 30) are the unprecedented levels of warmth in the Atlantic Ocean and the natural fluctuations caused by La Niña. Ocean temperatures have hit record highs in the past year, enhancing the probability of potent storms and potentially intensifying them at a faster rate.
According to Colorado’s forecast, there is a 62% likelihood of a major hurricane striking the U.S. coastline, an increase of about 19% from the norm. However, this projection was disclosed earlier this year and will be updated as the season progresses. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has yet to release its forecast.
Other hurricane experts also express concerns about the combination of unnatural ocean warming and La Niña’s natural impacts.
“All signs point towards what could potentially be a highly active hurricane season in 2024, with very powerful hurricanes. That’s definitely something to be worried about,” remarked meteorologist and hurricane expert John Morales from NBC 6 South Florida.
Sea surface temperatures are climbing globally, setting new daily records for over a year. This trend has baffled marine scientists and is likely influenced by climate change. Some of the most significant temperature anomalies have been observed in the waters off the west coast of Africa, where many Atlantic hurricanes that hit the U.S. East Coast originate.
“The ocean heat content in the tropical eastern Atlantic is currently *3 months* ahead of the norm,” noted Brian McNoldy, a senior research scientist at the University of Miami’s Rosenstiel School of Ocean, Atmospheric, and Earth Sciences, in a tweet. In simpler terms, the ocean’s current heat levels resemble those of a typical July.
Ocean heat serves as fuel for extreme storms. If a hurricane’s winds intensify suddenly as it nears the coast, there is a heightened risk of rapid intensification. In recent years, there has been an observed uptick in such intensification. Last year, Hurricane Idalia rapidly strengthened from a Category 1 to a Category 4 storm within 24 hours.
Morales expressed that this swift intensification is “one of the greatest concerns I’ve had to keep to myself over the past 15, 20 years as a hurricane forecaster.”
“Eventually, we’ll witness a mundane tropical storm transform into a Category 4 hurricane by the time it makes landfall in Miami 36 hours later,” he warned. “And individuals may not have made the essential preparations.”
Source: www.nbcnews.com
