In the first two months of 2024, measles outbreaks in the US and UK, a global cholera vaccine shortage, and a case of bubonic plague from an infected cat in Oregon have sparked concern. The resurgence of seemingly eradicated diseases raises questions about their return.
To shed light on the frequency of disease resurgences, we spoke with Paul Hunter, Professor of Medicine at UEA Norwich Medical School. Paul uncovers the reasons behind the resurgence, identifies potential epicenters, and discusses preventive measures to avert another Black Death.
How common is it for an infection that you thought had gone away to come back?
Many infectious diseases that were once prevalent and endemic continue to resurface with varying intensities. Globally, there is an average emergence or re-emergence of one or two significant diseases per year.
The resurgence of classic infections often occurs at a localized level. For instance, an area that was previously unaffected by cholera may suddenly witness an outbreak after decades.
Is it possible to completely wipe out disease from the earth?
While diseases like smallpox have been eradicated, the prospect of eliminating most infectious diseases remains elusive. Global spread and early transmission of infections make eradication improbable.
The success of smallpox eradication was attributed to an effective vaccine with clear diagnostic criteria for detection. However, challenges persist, especially with diseases spreading before symptoms manifest, as evident from the difficulties in eradicating COVID-19.
Moreover, conflict zones hinder disease control efforts, as seen during the Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.
What are the main ways the disease can return?
Viruses can evolve, leading to rapid spread and new strains, as seen with the emergence of new coronavirus variants. Environmental factors can also facilitate disease transmission, as exemplified by sylvatic plague spread through rodents.
Climate change plays a significant role in altering disease distribution, with dengue fever outbreaks appearing in unexpected regions due to warming climates.
Declining vaccine availability and uptake further contribute to disease resurgence, highlighting the importance of vaccination in disease prevention.
What does it take for a resurgent disease like bubonic plague to get out of control?
Bacterial infections like plague have the potential to wreak havoc, but antibiotics offer effective treatment. When diseases escalate, societal collapse often exacerbates the situation, increasing disease transmission and mortality.
Conflicts, environmental degradation, and economic crises create conditions conducive to disease spread, as observed in outbreaks like the one in Madagascar.
Which infectious disease would be the worst if there was a resurgence?
Cholera poses a significant threat, especially in conflict zones like Ukraine and Gaza. Shortages in cholera vaccines and increasing infection rates heighten concerns for rapid spread and high mortality rates.
An influenza pandemic akin to the 1917 Spanish flu remains a grave concern, given the potential for widespread fatalities, especially among younger individuals.
Another risk, of course, is international travel, as we’ve seen with coronavirus. What kind of unnecessary souvenirs can I bring back from abroad?
Antibiotic-resistant bacteria pose a major threat to international travelers, fueled by factors like sex and medical tourism. These infections, resistant to multiple drugs, raise concerns about global disease transmission.
Unsafe medical procedures during medical tourism contribute to the spread of drug-resistant infections, emphasizing the need for vigilant healthcare practices abroad.
Read the full interview with Instant Genius.
About our experts
Professor Paul Hunter, a renowned epidemiologist at UEA Norwich Medical School, focuses on emerging infectious diseases linked to environmental factors. His research published in prominent medical journals underscores the importance of disease surveillance and prevention.
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Source: www.sciencefocus.com
