summary
- Despite warm ocean temperatures, hurricane season is on a lull.
- This season is expected to be much more active than usual and is off to a record-breaking start.
- Still, the unofficial peak of hurricane season is on September 10, so scientists wouldn’t be surprised if cyclonic activity picks up again soon.
The Gulf of Mexico is scorching hot, but hurricane season is on a lull (at least temporarily) — a surprise to researchers who say there’s a lot brewing in the Atlantic, but no storms are showing up on radar.
The National Hurricane Center said on Friday No tropical cyclone activity expected for at least a week.
“Nothing is happening, which is extremely quiet and odd given the warm temperatures in the Atlantic and the La Niña climate pattern,” said Philip Klotzbach, a meteorologist at Colorado State University who specializes in seasonal hurricane forecasting in the Atlantic basin. “It’s a head-scratching situation right now.”
The La Niña weather phenomenon that scientists are predicting will develop this fall is closely linked to hurricanes, as is warming water in the Atlantic Ocean, with ocean heat content in the Gulf of Mexico at its highest since 2013, according to data from the University of Miami.
Sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic are trending about 1.8 degrees above normal. According to the University of Maine’s Climate Reanalysis InstrumentThis trend is especially evident in the Gulf of Mexico.
Warmer oceans increase hurricane energy through heat, increasing the risk of storms intensifying rapidly.
“We have plenty of fuel. It’s not going to hinder our season,” Klotzbach said.
Hurricane season begins on June 1 and ends on November 30. Hurricane scientists had predicted this year’s hurricane season would be record-breaking, but it got off to a record-breaking start in June with Hurricane Beryl being the first Category 4 storm to form in the Atlantic. Then, the slow-moving Hurricane Debbie dumped incredible rain on several southeastern states in early August. But since then, it’s been relatively quiet.
Steve Bowen, chief scientific officer at global reinsurance broker Gallagher Re, said weather trends off the coast of West Africa, including a strengthening monsoon, may have prevented tropical storms from developing in the Atlantic basin.
But that may not last long: The unofficial peak of hurricane season is September 10.
“I wouldn’t be surprised if we get what’s called a backloading season with pretty good activity through September, October, and possibly November,” Bowen said.
Although things have calmed down recently, scientists believe this season has been quite active so far.
“We’ve already had two landfalls in the United States,” Bowen said. “Typically, the first major hurricane doesn’t form until August 31st. … Just looking at the statistics, we’re well ahead of normal.”
Source: www.nbcnews.com
