How can we solve the planet’s plastic pollution crisis?

The world currently generates more than 50 million tonnes of “mismanaged” plastic waste each year, and some researchers predict that this flood of plastic pollution will double by mid-century. But he also said that if countries could agree to adopt four key policies during this period. This number could be reduced by 90 per cent if this week's global plastics deal is negotiated.

Plastic pollution ultimately chokes land and sea ecosystems. “This affects every level of the food chain, from phytoplankton cells to humans,” he says. Sarah-Jeanne Royer at the University of California, San Diego. Plastics also account for about 5% of greenhouse gas emissions.

That's why most of the world's countries are meeting this week in Busan, South Korea, to hammer out the final details of a global treaty to end plastic pollution. By 2022, 175 countries have already agreed to adopt a legally binding treaty For the past two years, we have been debating what exactly we should require, with particular disagreements over setting limits on production of new plastics.

To make the discussion more clear, douglas mcquarley The researchers at the University of California, Santa Barbara, used an artificial intelligence model trained on economic data to test how the policies they were considering would affect global plastic pollution. “I wasn't sure that [eliminating plastic pollution] It was actually possible,” McCauley said. “But it turns out we can get pretty close.”

They predict that under current conditions, plastic pollution is expected to almost double by 2050, reaching between 100 million and 139 million tonnes. However, all four policy combinations are still on the bill. Current draft treatywas sufficient to reduce this by over 90%.

The most influential of these was the mandate that plastic products contain at least 40% recycled material. This rule alone will cut plastic pollution in half by mid-century. Mr McCauley said this effect was significant because it would reduce demand for newly made or “virgin” plastics, while also stimulating demand for recycled materials. “Suddenly, there was a huge global recycling market.”

But recycling alone wasn't enough. “If our goal is to eliminate plastic pollution, we need to address it throughout its lifecycle,” he says. Further reductions would have required limiting virgin plastic production to 2020 levels. According to the model, this production cap would have reduced plastic pollution by about 60 million tons per year by mid-century. This change also had the biggest impact on greenhouse gas emissions from plastic production, as the extraction of fossil fuels and conversion into virgin plastics involves processes with large emissions.

A third policy would spend $50 billion on waste management, roughly equal to the production cap, especially if these funds go to low-income countries with poor infrastructure and where plastic pollution is most severe. reduced pollution. “When we start talking about global finance, [the amount of money needed] It’s not that big,” McCauley said. “Building a sanitary landfill is different from building a port.”

Finally, a small tax on plastic packaging has reduced pollution by tens of millions of tons. The researchers based this estimate on case studies of how people reduced their plastic use in response to similar taxes. 5 cents fee Regarding disposable plastic bags in Washington DC. Funds raised through such taxes could also be used to pay for other changes, such as building waste management infrastructure or improving recycling systems.

Royer, who was not involved in the study, said he thinks all of these policies will help. Reducing the use of single-use plastics, such as shopping bags and plastic forks, through taxes or bans could also make a difference, she says. “If you look at plastic pollution in general, 40% of the plastic produced is single-use.”

However, she points out that local rules alone will never solve the problem. California, for example, banned some single-use plastic bags a decade ago and this year banned all such bags. But most of the plastic pollution that washes up on our shores comes from outside the state, with California's plastic waste typically washing ashore from Asia across the Pacific or being left behind by fishing. “There are no borders,” Royer says.

This is where the World Treaty comes into play. Researchers explore how different policies around the world can reduce three things: the amount of poorly managed plastic waste, the production of new plastics, and plastic-related greenhouse gas emissions. I showed you. By combining the four key policies seen in the graph below, all three measures reduced, specifically mismanaged waste, by 91%.