How Middle East Conflicts Could Speed Up the Shift to Clean Energy

Despite the consistent opposition to climate initiatives from Donald Trump, his policies inadvertently accelerated the Green Revolution by directing attention to Iran’s actions.

In retaliation, Iran has halted nearly all navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial passage where 20% of the world’s oil and gas supply flows, escalating tensions with attacks on oil and gas infrastructures using drones and missiles.

As a result, oil prices have surged from approximately $70 to over $100 per barrel, with natural gas prices also seeing significant increases in various regions. Arab nations are attempting to redirect fuel through pipelines, though high prices are anticipated to persist. A think tank, Ember, estimates that even a decrease to an average oil price of $85 would result in an additional financial burden of $240 billion on fossil fuel-importing countries.

However, these costs could be mitigated by up to 70% through the adoption of renewable energy, electric vehicles, and heat pumps.

“The conflict in Iran will likely hasten the transition to cleaner energy sources,” says Sam Butler-Sloss from Ember. “As prices escalate and the vulnerability of fossil fuel systems becomes evident, nations recognize the urgent need to harness renewable energy—particularly where abundant solar and wind resources are available.”

The fallout from this energy crisis will likely surpass the impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, which disrupted the flow of Russian oil and gas to Europe. Consequently, annual solar installations in the EU have more than doubled, with growth in the UK nearing two-thirds, and wind energy capacity continuing to expand. Currently, renewable energy constitutes about 45% of the global energy capacity.

Asia currently stands as the most vulnerable region. 4/5 The amount of oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) transported through the Strait of Hormuz is critical for countries like Japan and South Korea, relying on it for 70% of their oil supply. Additionally, Taiwan sources a third of its natural gas from the strait, with India receiving up to 50% of its imports from there. Some businesses in India have even reduced menu options due to the cooking gas shortage. “This marks Asia’s moment of reckoning,” states Butler-Sloss.

As Japan and South Korea increase coal usage, which is twice as polluting as natural gas, short-term greenhouse gas emissions may rise. Simultaneously, both nations are boosting output from existing nuclear power plants.

In response, the South Korean government is expediting approvals, financing, and grid access for wind and solar projects. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi emphasized on March 11 that solar energy and electric vehicles are essential to decrease dependence on foreign fuel imports, as reported.

“Much like Europe did four years ago, Asian economies are beginning to awaken to these challenges,” says Pavel Molchanov from Raymond James & Associates. “This wake-up call will stimulate an increase in renewable energy adoption as fossil fuels become increasingly prone to disruption.”

China, which imports nearly half of its oil via the Strait of Hormuz, has already outpaced the global average in solar and wind power installations, with anticipations that this trend will amplify. However, as the world’s largest coal producer, it may simultaneously elevate coal usage in its energy mix.

“China will adhere to its comprehensive energy strategy,” notes Li Shuo from the Asian Social Policy Research Institute. “This lesson will resonate with several other nations.”

For countries with underdeveloped electricity grids, the rising costs of natural gas and diesel will position solar energy as a more attractive option for utilities, households, and businesses alike. Following the Ukraine invasion, Pakistan saw a notable increase in solar energy, which rose from 4% to 25% of its electricity generation, driven by households and businesses investing in affordable solar panels from China.

In the long run, electric vehicles (EVs) could emerge as significant beneficiaries. Prices for EVs could decrease at a faster rate than gas price fluctuations, as much of the natural gas is transported by pipeline rather than via shipping. In contrast, oil prices are globally influenced and typically higher. Consumers in the U.S., the largest oil-producing nation, face unprecedented fuel costs.

More individuals are considering purchasing EVs, asserts Enver, while governments should facilitate this transition, as the “superlever” of EV adoption could potentially reduce costs for fossil fuel-importing nations by one-third.

Nonetheless, as the average vehicle lifespan nears 20 years, the full impact of this transition will take time, according to energy consultant Michael Liebreich of Liebreich Associates. The shift from natural gas to renewable energy is already perceptible and will persist, even as gas prices decline.

“The assumption that gas demand will grow in a world equipped with affordable wind, solar, and battery storage—while increasingly shunning global commodity markets—is misguided. That era is over,” Liebreich concluded.