This year’s hurricane season was marked by three Category 5 storms—some of the most potent hurricanes ever documented—yet there were no landfalls on U.S. soil, leading to an unusual lull during the typically active period. These elements contributed to what many are calling a “screwball” season.
Atmospheric scientist Phil Klotzbach made this observation.
“It’s been quite an unusual year,” noted Klotzbach, a hurricane researcher at Colorado State University. “Characterizing this year’s patterns has been challenging.”
The official end of hurricane season is November 30th. Notably, the year 2025 aligns with anticipated increases in storm frequency as climate change progresses. Late-season hurricanes formed, some escalating rapidly and producing some of the most intense storms recorded.
In many respects, it was simply puzzling. Although fewer hurricanes developed than anticipated, nearly all that did reached major storm status. For the first time in a decade, the U.S. mainland avoided any landfalls, underscoring the unpredictable nature of hurricane seasons, despite improvements in forecast accuracy. This is particularly true in a warming climate.
Hurricanes will occur less frequently but with greater intensity.
In May, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecasters predicted a stronger-than-usual season, estimating six to ten hurricanes, including at least three major storms classified as Category 3 or higher, with winds of 111 miles per hour or more.
Klotzbach independently confirmed this forecast, as did other hurricane monitoring organizations. We were on the same page.
Ultimately, while the number of hurricanes was lower than expected, four out of the five that formed (Erin, Gabriel, Humberto, Imelda, and Melissa) were classified as major.
“This marks the highest rate seen in the past 50 years,” remarked Brian McNoldy, a hurricane researcher at the University of Miami’s Rosenstiel School of Ocean, Atmospheric and Earth Sciences.
Additionally, three of those storms reached the Category 5 level, the pinnacle of hurricane intensity.
Despite the limited number of storms, forecasters’ predictions of an above-average season held true, as measured by a metric called accumulated cyclone energy, which gauges the total intensity and duration of tropical cyclones throughout the season.
Klotzbach estimated the stored energy would be 125% of the 30-year average; the season concluded at 108%. This indicates that, given the fewer storms, each one was particularly powerful.
“It wasn’t about quantity this season; rather, it was about intensity,” he commented.
Klotzbach noted that nine of the last ten Atlantic hurricane seasons have been warmer than average, attributing this trend to rising ocean temperatures and the La Niña cycle, which generally weakens upper-level winds that inhibit hurricane formation.
McNoldy, who meticulously tracks Atlantic Ocean temperatures, stated that 2025 is expected to be “unusually warm.”
“Regardless of the storms we experienced, there was undoubtedly a significant amount of fuel available,” McNoldy said. Heat from the ocean promotes evaporation, driving warm, moist air upward and leading to convection. For hurricanes to develop, ocean temperatures must be at least 79 degrees Fahrenheit.
Source: www.nbcnews.com
