Independent Estimates of Gaza’s Death Toll Exceed Official Figures

According to an independent survey derived from household interviews, about 75,000 individuals (3.6% of the population) in the Gaza Strip lost their lives due to violence between October 7, 2023, and January 5, 2025. This figure exceeds the Gaza Health Ministry’s estimate of 46,000 violent deaths in the same timeframe.

The research also indicated that approximately 9,000 additional non-violent deaths occurred during this period compared to expected norms in the Gaza Strip. This marks the first estimate of indirect deaths stemming from the conflict that began in October 2023.

The survey involved interviews with 2,000 randomly selected households, which detailed the current and prewar conditions for all household members. “We were present on-site and gathered data directly from the population,” says Debarati Guha-Sapir at Louban Catholic University in Belgium.

The research team encountered restrictions in several locations due to ongoing combat and Israeli evacuation orders, but they believe these limitations likely understate the actual figures rather than exaggerate them.

Guha-Sapir notes that Gaza’s Ministry of Health maintains strict death counting standards. For instance, deaths of unidentified bodies, such as those buried in tunnels, are excluded from the counts. This leads her to conclude that their estimates may closely reflect the true numbers.

Another independent study published in February determined that the death toll up to June 24, 2024, surpassed the official count. However, this study relied on online research and social media obituaries, making Guha-Sapir regard the current research approach as more credible.

Francesco Checchi from the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, which conducted the February research, disagrees, stating, “The findings aren’t necessarily more accurate than ours.” Nonetheless, he acknowledges that Guha-Sapir’s research is more recent and includes indirect deaths, providing a more comprehensive mortality picture.

The estimated 9,000 indirect deaths from the conflict is lower than previous estimates. For example, a letter in The Lancet in 2024 suggested that for every direct death, there could be four indirect deaths in Gaza, projecting a death toll of around 186,000.

However, Guha-Sapir points out that the direct death rates observed in countries like Sudan, where extreme poverty and inadequate healthcare predate the conflict, do not apply to Gaza’s context prior to the war. This distinction is crucial in interpreting the current situation.

Nevertheless, changes may occur if conditions continue to deteriorate. “As the situation worsens, the rate of non-violent deaths could escalate quickly,” warns team member Michael Spagat from Royal Holloway University in London.