Is cleaner air fueling global warming more than we thought?

James Hanssen, the most well-known climate scientist, has doubled the impact on the climate of air pollution in the 1980s. I did.

“Humanity made bad transactions when using aerosol to offset almost half of greenhouse gas warming. Briefing The UN Sustainable Development Solutions Network is hosting.

However, other researchers say that this conclusion is based on unstable foundation, but it is not yet known how much reduction in air pollution has contributed to global warming. Hansen's conclusion states that “it is floating around the top of what is plausible.” Michael Diamond Florida State University is not involved in research.

The recorded spike of the global average temperature in 2023 and 2024 has spured the debate on whether the pace of global warming is accelerating faster than expected. The temperature of the greenhouse gas and the global warming of the Pacific Ocean have increased the majority of the temperature, but other unknown contributors have raised higher temperatures than they can explain only by these factors.

Hansen and his colleagues Before The acceleration speed has been accelerated as air pollution decreases. Currently, they are providing new analysis that claims that a decrease in air pollution can explain the temperature of temperature in the past two years. Both air pollution aerosol reflects sunlight directly from the earth and affects the reflection characteristics of the clouds. Changes in the cover of the clouds are also related to heat.

Researchers are particularly focused on the effects of 2020 regulations that reduce harmful sulfur used in transport fuel. Sudden deterioration of air pollution against the ocean provides an experimental unintended experiment and can make the aerosol's impact on the climate more accurately.

Hansen and his colleagues looked at the busy Pacific transport corridor, estimated this effect, and measured the change in solar radiation absorbed by planets in these regions as air pollution decreased. From this, they estimate that the decline in transportation aerosol has increased the heat reaching the earth by 0.5 watts per square meter. This is almost the same as the global warming effect of the world's 10 years of today's level.

They discovered that additional warming was enough to explain the unknown heat seen in the past two years. But its meaning is wider. That also means that the cooling effect of air pollution hides the total range of the global warming effect of greenhouse gases. In other words, the warming, which has been experienced so far, does not have a complete impact on our emissions.

Hansen and his colleagues warn that this means that the climate is much more sensitive than the level of greenhouse gas levels. As a result, they argue that the world is approaching the climate turning point, which is approaching more quickly, such as the deceleration of the main Atlantic current and the collapse of the Southwest Pole. To fight this, they say they need to be more serious about how to cool the planet with interventions like Solaragio Engineering.

However, 0.5 watts per square meter at the core of the new analysis are much higher than other estimated values ​​of the changes in shipping emissions. Tianle yuan In Maryland University Boltimore County. But he says it is not completely unbelievable.

Gabin Schmidt This number is “very” because NASA assumes that all changes in the absorbed sunlight are due to changes in the transport aerosol, rather than other changes such as air pollution and natural fluctuations from China. It is said that it is overestimation.

Changes in aerosol may not be necessary to explain the temperature spike in 2023. SHIV PRIYAM Raghuraman At the Illinois University Urban Champag School -he found that it could be explained before Change of Pacific temperature Alone. He says that a lot of work is needed to adjust the various estimated values ​​of the aerosol's global warming effect.