January Breaks Record as Hottest Month; Global Temperature Surpasses 1.7°C Rise

Temperature records continue. According to the European Union's Copernicus Climate Change Agency, January this year was the hottest on record, with temperatures 1.7 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial average.

This means there were 12 months in which the Earth's average surface temperature was more than 1.5 degrees Celsius above the average between 1850 and 1900, the pre-industrial reference point.

“2024 begins with another record month,” Samantha Burgess of the Copernicus Climate Change Service said in a statement. She said: “Rapid reductions in greenhouse gas emissions are the only way to stop global temperatures from rising.”

At the 2015 Paris Climate Conference, countries pledged to work to prevent global temperatures from rising more than 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. Climate scientists will not consider this limit to have been breached until the Earth's long-term average temperature exceeds this level for many years.

The long-term average is now 1.25°C warmer than before the industrial revolution. Richard Betts At the Met Office, the UK's National Weather Service. However, carbon emissions are still increasing, and by this standard it seems certain that the 1.5°C limit will be breached soon, perhaps around 2030.

Long-term global averages are rising in line with climate model predictions. However, the extremely rapid warming over the past year or two has far exceeded expectations. Among other records, in 2023 he recorded for the first time a day warmer by 2 degrees Celsius than the average from 1850 to 1900.

It remains unclear why there has been such rapid warming over the past year or so, and how long it will continue. Factors that may have accelerated warming include the 2022 eruption of Tonga Volcano, which pumped large amounts of water into the stratosphere, and reduced aerosol pollution from ships.

For practical reasons, climate scientists have defined pre-industrial temperatures as the average from 1850 to 1900, since there are few records of temperatures before then. However, using this as a baseline could mean that the level of warming due to fossil fuel emissions is being underestimated.

One 2017 survey This indicates an error of approximately 0.2°C. Another announcement this week put the difference at 0.5°C, based on analysis of sponges, meaning we have already breached the 1.5°C limit, but other climate scientists They are not satisfied with this.