Record high CO2 emissions driven by drought, fires, and use of fossil fuels

Carbon dioxide emissions from burning fossil fuels in 2024 are expected to exceed last year's record levels, dashing hopes that global warming emissions will peak this year.

“Reducing emissions is more urgent than ever, and the only way to do that is by significantly reducing fossil fuel emissions,” he said. Pierre Friedlingstein At the University of Exeter, UK.

This is according to the latest global carbon budget. reporta preliminary calculation of CO2 emissions to date, including projections until the end of the year, prepared by Friedlingstein and his colleagues. The announcement was made at the ongoing COP29 summit in Azerbaijan, where countries aim to set new fiscal targets to combat climate change.

Last year, some researchers predicted a peak in emissions in 2024, but the report found that anthropogenic CO2 emissions would reach a record high of 41.6 gigatonnes in 2024, up 2% from the 2023 record. It has been revealed that the number is expected to increase. Almost 90% of that total is made up of emissions from fossil fuel combustion. The remainder is primarily due to land changes caused by deforestation and wildfires.

Fossil fuel emissions will grow at 0.8 percent, half as much as in 2023, but still higher than the average growth rate over the past decade. “[The slower rate] This is a good sign, but we are still miles away from reaching our goal,” says Friedlingstein.

Despite a long-term downward trend, projected emissions from land-use change also increased this year, mainly due to drought-induced wildfires in the tropics. Part of this increase is also due to the collapse of terrestrial sinks of carbon in 2023, which typically removes about a quarter of annual CO2 emissions from the atmosphere. This absorption decreased by more than 40 percent last year and in early 2024 as global temperatures soared due to El Niño.

“2023 is an amazing demonstration of what can happen in a warmer world when El Niño droughts and fires combine to create record global temperatures,” he says. pep canadel He is a researcher at Australia's Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Agency and co-author of this report. “Taken all together, the world's forests contributed almost a third less carbon dioxide from the atmosphere last year than they did in the previous decade.”

This will also increase emissions in 2024, but researchers expect this “land carbon sink” to largely recover as the warming effects of El Niño fade. “This is not a long-term collapse,” Friedlingstein says.

The report reveals that China's CO2 emissions, which emit almost a third of the world's total emissions, are projected to increase by only 0.2% in 2024 compared to 2023. . Canadel said this forecast of China's emissions has a large margin of error, so they may actually be stable or even declining. India's emissions have also slowed down from last year, increasing by just under 5%. In the US and EU, emissions continued to decline, albeit at a much slower pace than last year.

Increased demand for electricity to power air conditioners due to higher temperatures is also a key reason why fossil fuel emissions will continue to rise despite a massive build-up of renewable energy in 2024. He says: Neil Grant At the German think tank Climate Analytics. Whether it's from electric vehicles, data centers or manufacturing, “most people seem to be a little surprised by the level of electricity demand this year,” he says.

If emissions continue at this level, the world will exceed its carbon budget to limit warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels within six years, and exceed its budget to limit warming to 2°C within 27 years, the report says. Pointed out. .

“We have to accelerate, accelerate, accelerate, accelerate the transition to renewable energy,” Candell said. “Climate change is like a slippery slope and we can keep falling. We need to slam on the brakes as hard as we can to avoid falling.”