What action should humanity take if an asteroid is heading toward the moon? Why not attempt to divert these celestial bodies before they collide? Should we neutralize it with a nuclear explosion?
These queries are examined in a recent paper authored by more than a dozen researchers, including NASA scientists. These scenarios aren’t merely theoretical: the asteroid known as 2024 YR4 is estimated to have a 4% chance of impacting the moon in 2032.
Such collisions could “spike levels of background radiation up to 1,000 times higher in just a few days, posing threats to astronauts and spacecraft in low-Earth orbit,” the researchers noted in their paper. The preprint on arXiv was published on September 15th but has yet to undergo peer review.
To prevent a potentially hazardous debris field, one approach is to use nuclear energy to neutralize the asteroid or, as scientists term it, create a “robust mess” before it reaches the moon.
Cue references from the “Armageddon” movie.
However, this approach carries significant risks, as it has never been tested for asteroid destruction using nuclear forces.
Crucial information about asteroid 2024 YR4 remains unknown, including its mass, which is vital for determining the most effective way to “destroy” it without unintentionally creating greater problems.
“If an explosion isn’t sufficient, just create a debris field anyway,” remarked Julie Brissett, interim director of the Florida Space Institute.
Asteroid 2024 YR4 was first identified in December by Chile’s Asteroid Land Impact Trajectory Store Alt System Station. NASA estimates it could be up to 220 feet in diameter, large enough to be categorized as a “city killer,” since it could severely damage an urban area or region on Earth.
Experts initially estimated a slim chance of asteroids hitting Earth, with an impact probability of 3% predicted earlier this year. However, subsequent analyses ruled out collisions with our planet.
Given that Earth appears to be safe, asteroid 2024 YR4 is considered to have an estimated 4.3% chance of impacting the moon.
The authors of a recent paper suggested launching a reconnaissance mission to study the asteroid and then developing an explosive device before deploying it for a space lock.
Alternatively, if a nuclear detonation is deemed too extreme for destruction, researchers will provide detailed strategies for steering the asteroid off course.
NASA has relevant experience; in 2022, its DART probe successfully altered its orbit by crashing into a small asteroid called Dimorphos. This test occurred 6.8 million miles from Earth, successfully redirecting Dimorphos and reducing its orbital period by 33 minutes, according to NASA.
However, for deflection efforts to succeed, Brissett noted that it’s crucial to ascertain the mass of asteroid 2024 YR4.
In response to an NBC News inquiry regarding NASA’s recent paper, Kelly Fast, the agency’s Planetary Defense Officer, stated that there are currently no plans to deflect the asteroid or intervene in its course.
Nevertheless, she indicated that a study is planned for early next year using the James Webb Space Telescope, aiming to yield insights into its trajectory.
“If we observe it, additional data could enhance our understanding of the asteroid’s position in December 2032,” Fast mentioned, “possibly reducing the impact probability to 0%.”
Even if missions, such as those discussed in the paper, can be executed, there are political dynamics to consider.
Currently, no astronauts or long-term habitats exist on the moon, though this may change. China, for instance, intends to send astronauts to the moon by 2030 and has discussed establishing a nuclear power plant there to support lunar bases in partnership with Russia.
The U.S. plans to conduct regular missions to the moon before NASA eventually targets Mars, but future missions and objectives remain uncertain due to notable budget cuts exceeding $6 billion in the NASA budget plan proposed by President Trump.
The use of nuclear devices in space could escalate tensions among the U.S., China, and other space-faring nations, potentially leading to disputes over which countries and agencies would spearhead or contribute to such projects, noted Brissett.
“It’s likely a country with the technical capability to do that,” she said, “narrowing it down to three or four, but the question remains: do they want to collaborate?”
Source: www.nbcnews.com
