The electric vehicle (EV) revolution is new research published in Cell Reports Sustainability.
The accelerating demand for lithium, an essential element of EV batteries, is expected to outstrip domestic supply in major markets by the decade’s end.
This analysis highlights China, the US, and Europe, which collectively represent 80% of current EV sales. Researchers caution that without significant changes, these regions may not fulfill their lithium requirements from local sources by 2030, leading to an increased reliance on imports and a heightened risk of global shortages.
“Many previous studies have examined the lithium necessary for low-carbon transitions,” said Dr. Andre Manberger, a co-author of the new study, in an interview with BBC Science Focus.
“The issue is that often we compare projected lithium demand with current mining rates and existing reserves. However, there’s a gap in the existing literature concerning mining feasibility.”
Globally, EV sales surpassed 17 million in 2024, marking a 25% increase from the previous year.
The International Energy Agency forecasts that electric vehicles could represent 40% of all car sales by 2030. However, this expansion hinges on a stable supply of lithium carbonate equivalents (LCE).
The study indicates that by 2030, annual LCE demand will reach 1.3 million tonnes in China, 792,000 metric tonnes in Europe, and 692,000 in the US. Yet, even if all current and planned mining projects are considered, domestic supply remains inadequate: China could produce up to 1.1 million tonnes, the US 610,000, and Europe only 325,000.
This shortfall could intensify global competition for lithium, primarily sourced from Australia, Chile, and Argentina. In 2023, these three countries accounted for nearly 80% of the world’s lithium.
China currently dominates the global lithium market, and an increase in its imports could negatively impact other buyers. Researchers found that should China’s imports rise by 77%, the US and European imports could drop by 84% and 78%, respectively.
“Commodity trading tends to have a lot of continuity and path dependence,” Månberger explains.
“This is due to the established supply chain, contracts, and overall inertia in the market.”
Nonetheless, there are reasons for optimism. Increasing lithium prices may drive investments in new mining initiatives and motivate manufacturers to create more efficient battery technologies. Alternatives like sodium-ion batteries could also contribute to a more diverse market.
In the long term, recycling could assume a more substantial role. As first-generation EVs reach the end of their lifespans in the 2030s, materials extracted from older batteries could mitigate the need for new lithium extraction.
“I’m very optimistic,” says Månberger. “Historically, while it’s often straightforward to forecast potential bottlenecks and supply risks, innovations tend to emerge unpredictably when these challenges arise.”
Read more:
About our experts
Andre Manberger is a senior lecturer in Environmental and Energy Systems Studies at Lund University, Sweden. He leads the Misttra Mineral Governance Research Program, initiated in 2024, focusing on the rising demand for critical raw materials and addressing conflicts of interest in the low-carbon transition.
Source: www.sciencefocus.com
