Unusually warm temperatures, dry grass, and a sudden strong wind cold front combined to create the conditions for the devastating wildfires that raged through parts of Texas this week.
The winds that sparked wildfires in the Texas Panhandle came at the perfect time for destruction, “like a hurricane hitting land at high tide,” said Texas climatologist John Nielson Gammon. Ta. He added that hot, dry temperatures, which may be promoted by climate change, helped create the conditions for these fires to start.
On Monday, temperatures reached the mid-80s in some parts of the state's arid region and several wildfires began burning.
The next day, arctic air swept in from the north on a severe cold front. Winds on either side of that front could exceed 50 miles per hour, causing flames to roar through the dormant grass, Nielsen-Gammon said. The cold front arrived in the late afternoon when wind speeds were highest and changed direction as it passed, maximizing the rate of fire spread.
It is not clear how the fire started.
Hanazuka Fire Department
“The timing of the weather during the day was probably the worst,” Nielsen-Gammon said. “If wildfires were to occur, these weather patterns would occur.”
The fire spread through the area so quickly that firefighters had little chance to extinguish it.
“Those fires were, all things considered, very fast-moving for a wildfire. We've seen speeds in the 5 to 10 mph range,” said National Weather Service meteorologist in Amarillo. Christian Rangel said. “The strong winds really helped push them around and get them out of control.”
The region's topography also plays a role, with open land facilitating fire establishment and rapid spread, while making firefighting difficult.
Although the area is mostly flat, it is characterized by “broken terrain” with sand and grass that makes it difficult to access, said Luke Canclairs, chief of forecasting services for the Texas A&M Forest Service. It can be difficult to do so. As a result, once a fire hit the plains, it was difficult to extinguish it quickly.
“A fire moving at about 8 miles per hour may not sound that fast, but when you have a large fire front and you're trying to contain a large area, it can far outpace the firefighting effort,” Kankleerts said. .
The Texas Panhandle is used to in-the-face winds and roller-coaster temperatures. But the fires would not have been as likely to occur if it weren't for unseasonably warm temperatures and dry conditions made more likely by climate change.
“This particular event would not have been as devastating had it happened at the same time several decades ago,” Nielsen-Gammon said. “These high temperatures can occur early in the season and usually occur when the grass is dormant, so there is a lot of dry fuel available.”
John Abatzoglou, a climatologist at the University of California, Merced, said wind was the biggest factor in the size of the nearly 1 million-acre fire, according to the federal government's wildfire tracking website Inchweb.
“This is primarily a wind-driven fire,” Abatzoglou said, adding that the role of climate change is “more subtle than we generally think.”
Abatzoglou said winds initially blew from the west, spreading the fire in the shape of an oval on the map, but then turned about 90 degrees and began pushing that line southward.
Abatzoglou said there is little hard evidence about how climate change is changing wind speeds.
Temperatures in the Borger area near where the fire started reached 85 degrees Fahrenheit on Monday, the news agency said. National Weather Service data.
Rangel said the Amarillo forecast area “has set records at many weather stations,” with relative humidity readings below 20 percent in many parts of the state and the landscape on the verge of flaming. added.
Source: www.nbcnews.com
