Food prices are on the rise
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Because of global warming, you are already paying more and more for groceries. And rising temperatures will cause food prices to rise significantly over the next decade.
By 2035, rising temperatures alone are expected to increase global food prices by 0.9 to 3.2 percent each year, according to a study conducted in collaboration with the European Central Bank. This would increase the overall inflation rate by 0.3 to 1.2 percentage points.
“We are often shocked and surprised by the magnitude of these effects,” he says. Maximilian Kotz He mentioned discussions he had with economists during his research at Germany's Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research.
Abnormal weather due to global warming Increasingly impacting food production around the world And if farmers don't adapt, the losses will become even more severe as the world continues to warm.
To find out how this is affecting food prices, Kotz and his colleagues looked at monthly price data for a variety of goods and services for 121 countries from 1996 to 2021 and the exposure to which those countries were exposed. The weather conditions were compared.
Researchers looked at the correlation between food prices and factors such as average monthly temperatures, temperature fluctuations, droughts and extreme rainfall. They found a strong association between average temperature and food prices a month or so later.
Areas north of 40 degrees latitude, such as New York City, Madrid, and Beijing, experienced warmer-than-average winter temperatures, leading to lower food prices. But not just in the summer, temperatures in other parts of the world have always been above average, causing food prices to rise.
Moreover, the impact on prices is long-lasting. “If prices go up based on one of these shocks, they stay high for at least the rest of the period,” Kotz says.
The study didn't look at why prices have increased, but one possible explanation is that extreme heat is reducing yields, he said. “The vines may be dry when the crop should be harvested.”
Kotz said factors such as extreme rainfall had a smaller impact on food prices than average temperatures. This may be because flooding tends to be localized, whereas above-average temperatures can be very widespread.
Other studies have reached similar conclusions, Kotz said. But his team went a step further and investigated how food prices would change based on increases in average temperatures in climate model projections. Under the team's worst-case emissions scenario, global food inflation due to climate change will exceed 4% per year by 2060. However, the team believes the 2035 prediction is more reliable, as many other factors could have changed by then.
“There are a lot of things that could happen that will change the way the economy responds to climate change,” Kotz said. For example, inflationary pressures would be reduced if farmers adapted their practices to better cope with rising temperatures. But so far, he says, there is no sign that farmers are adapting.
“I think these are realistic predictions. They are based on solid empirical evidence.” Matin Kaim At the University of Bonn, Germany. “We need to recognize the fact that climate change poses new and major challenges to food and nutrition security.”
according to Food Price Index of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, The cost of food fell in real terms between 1960 and 2000, but has risen since then. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 caused a massive surge – factors that influence this Protests are occurring in many countries. The index price has since fallen, but remains higher than before the invasion.
Like the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England, the European Central Bank aims to: keep inflation around 2%. Rising food inflation will make achieving this goal even more difficult, Kotz said.
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Source: www.newscientist.com
