The implementation of clean energy suggests that China’s emissions could have reached their peak.

With large-scale deployment of wind and solar power across China, the country's emissions could peak in 2023, potentially marking a historic turning point in the fight against climate change. be.

China's CO2 emissions hit a record high in 2023 as the Chinese economy recovers from the effects of the coronavirus pandemic. But since then, large amounts of wind and solar power have been added to the country's power grid, while emissions from the construction industry have declined.

China's carbon dioxide emissions remained flat from July to September 2024, after falling by 1% in the second quarter of this year, according to a new analysis. This means that overall emissions in 2024 could be flat or slightly down at 2023 levels.

This will be critical to tackling global climate change. Lauri Milivirta At the Center for Energy and Clean Air Research, a Finnish think tank. “For the past eight years, since the signing of the Paris Climate Agreement, China's emissions growth has been the main driver of global emissions,” he says.

In its climate change plan submitted to the United Nations, China pledged to peak greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 and achieve net-zero emissions by 2060. But experts warn. This plan is not very ambitious Given the large impact that China, the world's largest emitter, has on global climate change.

It's important for China to bring emissions to a peak as soon as possible, Millibilta said. “This would pave the way for the country to start reducing emissions much sooner than current commitments require,” he said. “This will have huge implications for global efforts to avoid catastrophic climate change.”

China is rushing to ramp up power supplies across the country to meet rapidly growing power demand. This demand increased by 7.2% year-on-year from July to September, due to rising living standards and increased demand for air conditioning due to the strong heat wave from August to September.

New renewable energy sources are being introduced at breakneck speed across China to fill the electricity demand gap. From July to September, compared to the same period in 2023, solar power generation increased by 44 percent and wind power generation increased by a whopping 24 percent. Based on the current trajectory, China's solar power growth this year will rival China's total annual electricity generation. Australia in 2023.

However, coal-fired power usage still increased by 2% and gas production increased by 13% from July to September in response to increased demand. This resulted in an overall 3% increase in CO2 emissions from China's power sector during this period. However, these were offset by a slowdown in the construction industry across China as real estate investment declined.

Oil demand also fell by 2% in the third quarter of this year, as electric vehicles continue to make up a larger share of China's car fleet. By 2030, almost one in three cars on China's roads will be expected to be electric.

Myllyvirta carried out an analysis of the website carbon briefs Uses official figures and commercial data. “If the rapid growth of clean energy is sustained, it will pave the way for sustainable emissions reductions,” he says.

However, he said that flat or declining emissions in 2024 were not guaranteed as government stimulus measures to boost the economy could cause emissions to rise in the last three months of the year. He warns that this does not mean that the Carbon emissions must fall by at least 2% in the last three months. He predicted that three months of this year will be below 2023 levels.

still Signals from the Chinese government It has signaled that the country's emissions are expected to continue rising until the end of the decade, which would use up the remaining global carbon budget by 1.5 degrees Celsius.