The Milton, which is expected to make landfall along the Florida Gulf Coast Wednesday evening, is sailing through unusually warm waters in the Gulf of Mexico. Temperatures in much of the ocean basin were well above 80 degrees Fahrenheit, with some parts of the bay up to 4 degrees warmer than normal. Data from NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory.
Rising temperatures in the Gulf also strengthened Hurricane Helen, which made landfall in Florida’s Big Bend region less than two weeks later.
2023 study published in journal scientific report We find that Atlantic tropical cyclones are about 29% more likely to develop rapidly from 2001 to 2020 compared to 1971 to 1990.
Scientists have documented many recent examples of rapid intensification, including Hurricane Harvey in 2017, Hurricane Laura in 2020, Hurricane Ida in 2021, and Hurricane Idalia last year. 2019 Hurricane Dorian’s peak wind speed increased from 150 mph to 185 mph in nine hours, and 2022 Hurricane Ian experienced two rapid intensifications before making landfall in Florida.
Although this process is well documented, rapid intensification is difficult to predict. Although scientists know the ingredients needed to activate this phenomenon, it remains difficult to predict exactly how and when it will occur, and its exact triggers.
Milton is expected to weaken slightly before making landfall, but the storm’s impacts will be severe. A storm surge watch is in effect for the Florida Gulf Coast, including the Tampa Bay area, with potentially life-threatening storm surges of up to 12 feet expected. As many as 15 million people are under flood watches across the state.
Source: www.nbcnews.com
