SpaceX’s launch outlook could be affected by a faster-than-expected buildup at Blue Origin and by rising demand from the US military. Quilty has made a conservative forecast for Blue Origin’s New Glenn launch cadence, while excluding a recently increased set of military launch requirements from its calculations because the government could compel SpaceX to prioritize those missions.
Blue Origin’s potential launch ramp-up
One factor that could mitigate the pressure on launch capacity is the rapid acceleration of Blue Origin’s New Glenn program. Henry said Quilty is using a conservative forecast of eight New Glenn launches in 2028, 12 in 2029 and 16 in 2030.
“I’d be happy to be proven wrong,” he said. “And Blue has been in development for so long that they could come out of the gate with a bang.”
Blue Origin is building production capacity for as many as 150 upper stages per year, Henry noted. However, he cautioned that it will take time for the company to launch rockets of this size at a consistently high rate.
Military demand is another wildcard
The US military is another major uncertainty. The current phase of the National Security Launch Program has two lanes. Lane 1 covers missions with a higher risk tolerance, and any company with one successful rocket launch can bid on them. At present, that includes SpaceX’s Falcon rockets, Blue Origin’s New Glenn and United Launch Alliance’s Vulcan. A new generation of medium-sized rockets is expected to join the group within the next year or two.
Lane 2 is reserved for SpaceX and United Launch Alliance. Earlier this year, the US Space Force significantly increased its demand forecasts for both lanes: Lane 1 rose from an estimated 30 to 60 launches to approximately 170 launches, while Lane 2 increased from 54 launches to 79 launches. These missions are expected to be ordered between 2025 and 2029.
Henry said Quilty’s calculations do not include this surge in military launch demand because he believes the US military can require SpaceX to conduct launches it considers national priorities. SpaceX is also already building some of the satellites involved, including the space-based airborne moving target beacon constellation.
“The US government will force them to do this,” Henry said. “SpaceX has already built a significant number of these satellites.”
Source: arstechnica.com
