IF Adam Dorr is right, robots and artificial intelligence may soon dominate the global economy, effectively displacing humanity from the workforce. Social scientists also foresee a drastic, rapid, and relentless tech transformation, likely rendering most human jobs obsolete within the next two decades.
Dorr leads a team of researchers studying technological change over millennia and predicts that by 2045 not only will the labor market be shaken, but even horses, in a metaphorical sense, will be affected. “In the realm of technology, we’ve become the next targets. That’s our labor we’re discussing.”
Whatever your profession, machines will soon be able to perform those tasks. “Costs have continually decreased, and capabilities have continually improved. I’ve observed this trend before. If you can achieve the same results for less, the switch becomes inevitable. We are akin to horses, and to traditional film cameras.”
Dorr, 48, is a technology theorist with a PhD in Public Service from UCLA. He leads Rethinkx, a nonprofit focused on analyzing and forecasting technological disruptions, primarily established and funded by tech entrepreneurs James Albib and Tony Seba.
In a conversation with the Guardian, Dorr discussed his recent visit to Ireland for the Dargan Forum, a two-day event in Dún Laoghaire, South Dublin, that emphasized green and digital transitions.
Dorr combined his foreboding forecasts, asserting that humanoid robots equipped with advanced AI are poised to permeate nearly every industry, leaving humans unable to compete. This situation will lead to increased inequality and extreme societal divides.
The pace of this transition is faster than most anticipate, according to Dorr. “We’ve tracked over 1,500 instances of technological change throughout history. Our theoretical framework has revealed consistent patterns occurring repeatedly.”
When new technologies capture even a slight percentage of market share or public attention, they tend to quickly gain overwhelming dominance within 15 to 20 years. This indicates that both robots and AI could soon eradicate human labor, as Dorr claims.
“The machines we envision are expanding daily, and we have limited time to brace ourselves for this. Turbulence is unavoidable.”
Some sectors allow for fruitful human-robot collaboration, reminiscent of chess grandmasters working alongside chess programs, but Dorr believes such coexistence is becoming less viable.
While roles that depend on human judgment, like sports coaches, politicians, sex workers, and ethicists, may still exist, these too face fierce competition from machines. “There will always be some niche areas for human labor, but the reality is we aren’t close to enough job opportunities to employ 4 billion people.”
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As traditional institutions may no longer serve their intended purposes, Dorr emphasizes the urgent need for society to create new guidelines and reassess concepts like value, pricing, and distribution. “I don’t have the answers. I’m not even sure if I’m asking the right questions. What I do know is that we must experiment with new ownership models and stakeholder structures.”
He is the author of the book *Bright: The Future of Optimism, Progress, and Environmentalism*, which envisions a future of sustainability and hope. He recognizes the risks of economic disruption, rising populist sentiments, and misinformation, yet he insists this evolution is inevitable. The potential for productivity gains and abundance is staggering, and by emulating models like open-source software, equitable distribution can be achievable. “This could be one of humanity’s most significant transformations to date.”
While past futurists anticipated an era of leisure but missed the mark, current insights suggest that such a transformation may actually be on the horizon, with a smaller segment of society, previously unengaged in work, offering guidance on how to fill their time.
“We can draw comparisons with affluent individuals who seem directionless and possibly unhappy, while others find ways to lead meaningful and purposeful lives. I believe our connections with friends, family, and community play a crucial role in this fulfillment.
Source: www.theguardian.com
