According to the Director-General of the International Monetary Fund, artificial intelligence will impact 40% of jobs around the world, and countries need to build social safety nets to reduce the impact on vulnerable workers. “Very important.”
AI, a term that refers to computer systems capable of performing tasks typically associated with a level of human intelligence, is poised to significantly change the global economy, with a growing risk of disrupting developed economies.
Analysis by IMFThe last international financial institution says that around 60% of jobs in developed countries such as the US and UK are exposed to AI, and half of them could be adversely affected. But as AI improves performance, the technology could also help some humans become more productive, the report said.
According to the IMF, the safest jobs at risk are those that are “highly complementary” to AI, meaning that the technology supplements rather than completely replaces jobs. This includes roles that involve a high degree of responsibility and interaction with people, such as surgeons, lawyers, and judges.
High-risk jobs that are “low complementarity” (i.e., could be replaced by AI) include telemarketing or cold calls to solicit people to offer goods or services. According to the IMF, low-exposure occupations include dishwashers and performers.
According to the IMF, AI will account for 40% of job opportunities in emerging market countries (defined by the IMF as countries including China, Brazil, and India) and 26% in low-income countries, for a total of just under 40%.
Generative AI (a term used to describe technologies that can generate highly plausible text, images, and even audio from simple manual prompts) has emerged on the political agenda since the advent of tools such as ChatGPT chatbots.
IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said the ability of AI to impact high-skilled jobs means developed countries face greater risks from the technology. She added that in extreme cases, jobs could be lost in some major economies.
“About half of the exposed jobs could benefit from AI integration and increase productivity,” Georgieva said in a blog post accompanying the IMF study. “For the other half, AI applications could perform key tasks currently performed by humans, which could reduce demand for labor and lead to lower wages and fewer jobs. In extreme cases, some of these jobs may disappear.”
He added that in most scenarios, AI would likely exacerbate inequality across the global economy and could cause social tensions without political intervention. AI is expected to be high on the agenda at the World Economic Forum in Davos this week, where top technology industry leaders are expected to attend.
“It is important for countries to establish comprehensive social safety nets and provide retraining programs for vulnerable workers,” Georgieva said. “Doing so can make the transition to AI more inclusive, protect livelihoods, and limit inequality.”
According to the IMF's analysis, high-wage workers in jobs that are highly complementary to AI can expect to see higher incomes, which could lead to higher inequality.
“This will further widen income and wealth inequality resulting from higher returns to capital accruing to high-income earners,” the IMF report said. “Countries' choices regarding fiscal policy, including the definition of AI property rights and redistribution, will ultimately shape the impact on the distribution of income and wealth.”
The report found that the UK workforce, with a high proportion of university graduates, is under no obligation to do so, although older workers may struggle to adapt to new jobs, move on to new jobs or retrain. They say they may be ready to switch from a job that risks leaving them to a job that is “highly complementary.”
Last year, the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development said the occupations most at risk from AI automation are high-skilled occupations, which account for about 27% of all agency jobs. 38 member countriesThis includes the United Kingdom, Japan, Germany, United States, Australia, and Canada. He said skilled professions such as law, medicine and finance are most at risk.
Source: www.theguardian.com
