Will Criminal Self-Monitoring Systems Replace Prisons in the Future?

The 2020s marked a significant period for the United States, spending around $182 billion annually on incarceration. This was a unique phenomenon, as few nations matched the US in both the number of incarcerated individuals and the financial burden incurred. Similar overcrowding and inhumane conditions plagued prisons worldwide, leading to a compelling question: why not eliminate them? With the advancement of technology, monitoring and managing individuals remotely became a viable solution.

The Home Guard initiative aimed to replace conventional prisons with three core components. The first element was an ankle bracelet that tracked the prisoner’s location. The second aspect involved a harness equipped with sensors to monitor the individual’s actions and conversations. The final component activated if the terms of the sentencing were violated, such as leaving the designated area or engaging in illicit activities, deploying an energy device similar to a stun gun to temporarily incapacitate the individual. Prisoners rapidly adapted to these regulations.

It’s unsurprising that Scandinavian nations were pioneers in abolishing prisons. In the region, imprisonment is viewed not as a means of punishment but as a method to safeguard the community. (“Home Guard” translates to the Norwegian term Gem Vernet.)

Halden Prison, a maximum security institution in Norway, was opened in 2010. It featured barred windows, private bathrooms, televisions, and high-quality furnishings within cells. Inmates dined and socialized with unarmed correctional staff rather than traditional guards and were incentivized to work for compensation. Outsiders often compared the facility to a luxurious hotel. Meanwhile, reports of inmate mistreatment surged in American prisons throughout the early 21st century. Norway’s recidivism rate stood at approximately 20% after two years, in stark contrast to the UK’s and the US’s 60-70%. Despite its costs, Halden provided effective rehabilitation and ultimately saved funds in the long run.

Even in progressive Scandinavia, there were citizens who believed in punishment for wrongdoers. However, sociologists discovered that informing the public about the detrimental effects of excessive and cruel punishment on society ultimately leads to a perception that alternatives could be superior. This was the central aim of the Home Guard.

The initial self-fencel (“Self-Prison”) trial commenced in Norway in 2030. Participants received secure ankle bracelets for GPS tracking and wore harnesses that continuously captured images of their faces, processed through facial recognition software to prevent transfer to another individual. AI systems thoroughly monitored the inmates’ activities, including website visits and communication.

In the event of a breach of prison rules, a conducted energy device, typically found in stun guns, was integrated into the ankle bracelet to deliver an electric shock upon detection of any infractions. Authorities were then alerted.

The Home Guard scheme was initially proposed in 2018 by Dan Hunter and his teammates at King’s College London, who concluded that self-imposed prisons were significantly less costly than traditional ones over a complete sentence, even with the annual replacement of technology. Naturally, as technology became more affordable, expenses diminished further.

The first self-fencel trials took place in Bergen, where all prisoners not convicted of serious offenses were outfitted with the self-imprisonment technology and sent back to their homes. This initiative was a remarkable financial triumph and reinforced the message that physical prisons are costly, inhumane, inefficient, and antiquated. For global observers, it became evident that traditional prisons failed to adequately protect society, given their high recidivism rates.

Technical confinement proved to be superior; self-fencel quickly proliferated throughout Scandinavia. Trials were eventually conducted across Europe, and later in India, Mexico, Brazil, Australia, and even the United States. By 2050, 95% of prisons in these regions were closed. The savings were redirected toward education and healthcare, resulting in decreased crime rates as societal advancements and the reality of constant surveillance encouraged law-abiding behavior. Parents reminded their children, “Obey the law, or you’ll end up in jail,” and this threat resonated.

Rowan Hooper serves as the podcast editor at New Scientist and is the author of How to Spend a Trillion Dollars: The 10 Global Issues We Can Actually Fix. Follow him on Bluesky @rowoop.bsky.social. In Future Chronicles, he imagines a future filled with innovative inventions and developments.