As hurricane season wraps up, scientists explore surprising trends

A bizarre and devastating hurricane season officially came to an end Saturday, and forecasters are looking into its many surprises.

Philip Klotzbach, a Colorado State University meteorologist who specializes in Atlantic hurricane forecasting, said, “Every year there are one or two things that bother me, but this year there were more than usual.” he said.

Most forecasters are predicting a very active hurricane season as early as April, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has released its best forecast ever.

In the end, there were 18 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes. Although this was at the low end of the range most forecasters expected, it was still above normal and a “very active” season.

What surprised researchers was how strange the season unfolded. It got off to a roaring start in June when Hurricane Beryl became the first Category 5 storm to be observed in the Atlantic Ocean. But from mid-August to early September, everything went quiet. The season typically reaches its peak around September 10th. But it was the first time since 1968 that no named storm formed during those weeks.

Just when researchers thought their predictions were wrong, storm activity picked up again and Hurricanes Helen and Milton struck, causing billions of dollars in damage.

“The normal seasonal cycle has been reversed,” Klotzbach said. “What was striking to me was that it was like a switch was flipped, completely off, then completely on. For Helen, nothing happened, and for East Atlantic and Milton, The storm continued.”

Researchers are studying what causes this strange pattern to better understand the factors that cause hurricanes and improve future predictions.

Researchers predicted this spring's hurricane season would be busy and dangerous because of record-high ocean temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean and the possibility that La Niña, a pattern of natural fluctuations, could take hold. Ta. Ocean heat provides fuel for hurricanes and can intensify them faster. La Niña is associated with hurricanes because it often reduces atmospheric stability.

“Early on, we thought it was going to be our busiest season on record,” Klotzbach said.

Although ocean temperatures remained at or near record highs in the North Atlantic, La Niña events did not develop as strongly, said Matthew Rosen, chief hurricane forecaster at the NOAA Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service. Krans said.

A combination of other factors most likely contributed to the alarming stagnation in activity.

Approximately 60% of hurricanes occur as a result of Africa's tropical monsoon season. draws moisture into an area called the Sahel. However, this year's monsoon developed elsewhere.

“The monsoon reached so far north and was so strong that it reached areas that hadn't had rain in 45 years,” Rosencrans said, adding that this change had weakened the development of tropical cyclones. Ta.

Rosencrans said another climate pattern, called the Madden-Julian Oscillation, a group of storms that pass near the equator, also likely contributed, with storm development slowing in early September and then later in the month. It is said that hurricanes are starting to occur.

Researchers will spend the winter examining which factors had the most influence through climate and weather models.

“This is an opportunity to learn, to observe systems and let the Earth teach us something new,” he said.

Despite a mid-season interruption due to a tropical storm, 2024 set several records. According to a review published by Klotzbach, five hurricanes have made landfall in the continental United States, tied for the second-highest number in history.

Helen was the most powerful hurricane to hit Big Bend, Florida. Since September 25th, seven hurricanes have formed in the Atlantic Ocean, the most on record.

Hurricane Milton set a record for tornado warnings in Florida, spawning dozens of tornadoes.

Research suggests climate change has worsened Helen and Milton's symptoms. Both hurricanes underwent a rapid intensification process, with their sustained wind speeds increasing by at least 35 miles per hour over a 24-hour period. This trend is becoming more common as global temperatures rise.

Additionally, scientists studying the effects of climate change on weather have discovered that: Rainfall amounts for single-day events like Milton are currently about 20% to 30% higher due to climate change.. Researchers, in collaboration with the World Weather Attribution project, determined that Milton's wind speeds were likely 10% stronger due to the effects of climate change. The group had similar results during Hurricane Helen.

According to a report published by Climate Central, a nonprofit organization that tracks climate change, all 11 of this year's Atlantic hurricanes An additional 9 to 28 miles per hour due to human-induced global warmingmainly due to the record-breaking warmth of the ocean.

Rosenkrans said research generally does not suggest that the number of named storms (winds of 39 miles per hour or more) will change with climate change. However, a larger proportion of named storms are expected to become hurricanes, with the majority of those hurricanes reaching Category 4 or 5. That was the case this year as well.